So I spent some time today going back through the NFL preseason picks I had made back on the 29th of August, and it's really interesting how those picks compared to what actually happened. This post will review where I went wrong and which ones were picked correctly.
Let's start with the playoffs and work backwards.
In the AFC, I had predicted:
New England #1 seed
Houston #2 seed
Baltimore #3 seed
San Diego #4 seed
Wildcards were
Pittsburgh & NY Jets
I had New England losing to the Chargers in the AFC championship game as well.
Well, I hit that NE, Houston and Baltimore would win their respective decisions, although, in reality the Ravens and the Texans would swap playoff seeding. I also correctly picked that Pittsburgh would be a wildcard team.
SD and NYJ did not make the playoffs, instead Denver was the #4 seed and Cincinnati was the last wildcard team.
I didn't fair as well in the NFC.
I had GB correct as the #1 seed, but then had Philadelphia and Arizona as the #2 and #4 seeds respectively, and neither made the postseason.
I had Atlanta winning the South, incorrect again and didn't even have NO in the playoffs, instead I had Dallas as the top wildcard team, who, again, missed the playoffs, but I did have Detroit correctly slotted as the #6 seed.
The NFC championship game had GB beating Philadelphia, which of course, the Giants would go on to win and then win the Super Bowl as well, and of course, the Giants were nowhere in my postseason predictions.
As for the regular season records, in the:
AFC EAST
I picked:
NE 12-4, not bad as they went 13-3
NYJ 10-6, a couple games off as they went 8-8
Buffalo 8-8, again missed by 2 games, 6-10 was their record
Miami 6-10- I hit this one correctly as they did finish 6-10
AFC NORTH
I picked
Baltimore 11-5, not bad, they finished 12-4
Pittsburgh, 11-5, again, not bad, they also finished 12-4
Cincinnati 5-11, way off here, they finished 9-7
Cleveland 5-11, not bad, a game off, 4-12 was their mark
quick note: I'm kind of proud I picked BAL & PIT to be tied for the top two spots here, even picking BAL winning Division correctly
AFC SOUTH
I picked
Houston 11-5, not bad, one game away from their 10-6 mark
Indianapolis 10-6, WAYYYYYYY off here, they finished 2-14
Jacksonville 6-10, again, not bad, one game off their 5-11 record
Tennessee 2-14, again a terrible pick, they finished 9-7
AFC WEST
I picked
SD 10-6, two games off from their 8-8 mark
KC 6-10, only a game off of where they finished at 7-9
Oakland 4-12, double that pick and you get their record, 8-8
Denver, 3-13, another horrible pick, won division at 8-8
In the NFC
NFC EAST
I picked
Philadelphia 11-5, 3 games off here from their 8-8 finish
Dallas 10-6, a pair of games away from their 8-8 mark
NYG, 7-9, only two games off from 9-7, but they did win SB so?
Washington 6-10, only a game off from their 5-11 mark
NFC NORTH
I Picked
GB 13-3, I thought they'd be great, but missed by 2, they were 15-1
Detroit 10-6, I hit this record on the mark
Chicago 8-8, Hit this one on the mark as well
Minnesota 7-9, was way off here, they finished 3-13
NFC SOUTH
I Picked
Atlanta 11-5, one game off their 10-6 finish
NO 10-6, three away from their 13-3 mark
TB 10-6, am ashamed I had them tied with NO, 4-12 they went
Carolina 4-12, did two games better than I thought at 6-10
NFC WEST
I picked
Arizona 10-6, off by 2, they finished 8-8
St. Louis 9-7, horrible picking again, 2-14 they finished
SF 4-12, brutal yet again here, they finished 13-3
Seattle 3-13, didn't give them enough credit either, finished 7-9
So, in the end, I guess I didn't do half bad for picking every game before the season started. I was certainly way off from what actually transpired, but that almost had to be assumed, seeing so many things can change in the NFL in any given week. Peyton Manning not playing effected both the Colts and the AFC, SF Defense coming out of almost nowhere effected the NFC. Things like these and others play a big part of an NFL season, but even with some of the terrible picks, I hit on a few and didn't do nearly as bad as I thought this experiment would prove.
I did outstanding picking week to week during the season, which, in the end is probably the only way to pick the games, as you have a better pulse for each team, each week and most of the variable that could and often do come into play.
But this was fun, a lot of work, but I may consider giving this preseason game another shot next year.
Anyhow, I hope this offered another take on the world of picking NFL games and offered a bit of amusement as well.
Showing posts with label 2011 Season. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2011 Season. Show all posts
Wednesday, February 8, 2012
Monday, August 29, 2011
2012 NFL Draft Order: Based on my 2011 NFL Predictions (13 of 13)
2012 DRAFT ORDER
1 TENNESSEE TITANS (2-14)
2 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (3-13)
3 DENVER BRONCOS (3-13)
4 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (4-12)
5 OAKLAND RAIDERS (4-12)
6 CAROLINA PANTHERS (4-12)
7 CLEVELAND BROWNS (5-11)
8 CINCINNATI BENGALS (5-11)
9 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (6-10)
10 KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (6-10)
11 MIAMI DOLPHINS (6-10)
12 WASHINGTON REDSKINS (6-10)
13 MINNESOTA VIKINGS (7-9)
14 NEW YORK GIANTS (8-8)
15 CHICAGO BEARS (8-8)
16 BUFFALO BILLS (8-8)
17 ST. LOUIS RAMS (9-7)
18 INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (10-6)
19 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (12-4)**
20 TAMPA BAY BUCCANNEERS (10-6)
21 DETROIT LIONS (10-6)
22 ARIZONA CARDINALS (10-6)
23 PITTSBURGH STEELERS (11-5)
24 BALTIMORE RAVENS (11-5)
25 DALLAS COWBOYS (10-6)
26 NEW YORK JETS (10-6)
27 HOUSTON TEXANS (11-5)
28 CLEVELAND BROWNS (5-11)***
29 PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (11-5)
30 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (12-4)
31 GREEN BAY PACKERS (13-3)
32 SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (10-6)
**Note: New Orleans traded their 2012 1st round pick to New England as part of the 2011 Draft-day trade, which they used to get back into the 1st round and select RB Mark Ingram
***Note: Atlanta traded their 2012 1st round pick to Cleveland as part of the 2011 Draft-day trade, which they used to move up to select WR Julio Jones
2011 NFL Season Awards and Leaders (12 of 13)
2011 NFL SEASON
AWARD PREDICTIONS
OFFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
Mark Ingram RB NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
DEFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
Marcel Dareus DT BUFFALO BILLS
OFFENSIVE MVP
Aaron Rodgers QB GREEN BAY PACKERS
DEFENSIVE MVP
Ndamukong Suh DT DETROIT LIONS
Troy Polamalu S PITTSBURGH STEELERS
COMEBACK PLAYERS OF THE YEAR
Chad Ochocinco WR NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Plaxico Burress WR NEW YORK JETS
COACH OF THE YEAR
Jim Schwartz DETROIT LIONS
RUSHING LEADER
Arian Foster RB HOUSTON TEXANS
RECEIVING LEADER
Vincent Jackson WR SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
PASSING LEADER
Aaron Rodgers QB GREEN BAY PACKERS
SACK LEADER
Julius Peppers DE CHICAGO BEARS
INTERCEPTION LEADER
Eric Berry S KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
2011 NFL Predictions: NFC Final Standings & Playoffs (11 of 13)
NFC
STANDINGS
EAST W-L DIV CNF H A
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES | 11-5 | 4-2 | 9-3 | 4-4 | 7-1 |
DALLAS COWBOYS | 10-6 | 4-2 | 10-2 | 6-2 | 4-4 |
NEW YORK GIANTS | 7-9 | 3-3 | 7-5 | 4-4 | 3-5 |
WASHINGTON REDSKINS | 6-10 | 1-5 | 3-9 | 4-4 | 2-6 |
NORTH W-L DIV CNF H A
GREEN BAY PACKERS | 13-3 | 6-2 | 10-2 | 7-1 | 6-2 |
DETROIT LIONS | 10-6 | 3-3 | 7-5 | 6-2 | 4-4 |
CHICAGO BEARS | 8-8 | 3-3 | 5-7 | 4-4 | 4-4 |
MINNESOTA VIKINGS | 7-9 | 2-4 | 3-9 | 4-4 | 3-5 |
SOUTH W-L DIV CNF H A
ATLANTA FALCONS | 11-5 | 4-2 | 8-4 | 6-2 | 5-3 |
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS | 10-6 | 5-1 | 8-4 | 4-4 | 6-2 |
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS | 10-6 | 3-3 | 6-6 | 5-3 | 5-3 |
CAROLINA PANTHERS | 4-12 | 0-6 | 2-10 | 4-4 | 0-8 |
WEST W-L DIV CNF H A
ARIZONA CARDINALS | 10-6 | 5-1 | 8-4 | 5-3 | 5-3 |
ST. LOUIS RAMS | 9-7 | 5-1 | 7-5 | 5-3 | 4-4 |
SAN FRANCSICO 49ers | 4-12 | 1-5 | 2-10 | 3-5 | 1-7 |
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS | 3-13 | 1-5 | 2-10 | 2-6 | 1-7 |
PLAYOFFS
DIVISION WINNERS
GREEN BAY PACKERS NORTH 13-3 SEED #1 RND 1 BYE
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES EAST 11-5 SEED #2 RND 1 BYE
ATLANTA FALCONS SOUTH 11-5 SEED #3
ARIZONA CARDINALS WEST 10-6 SEED #4
*Notes: Philadelphia receives #2 Seed and 1st Round Bye over Atlanta due to Head To Head Victory
WILDCARDS
DALLAS COWBOYS EAST 10-6 SEED #5
DETROIT LIONS NORTH 10-6 SEED #6
*Notes: Dallas, Detroit, Tampa Bay and New Orleans were all tied with a W-L record of 10-6. New Orleans was eliminated by virtue of Conference Record. Tampa Bay was eliminated by virtue of Winning Percentage Vs. Dallas & Detroit. Dallas received #5 Seed due to Head To Head victory over Detroit.
PLAYOFFS ROUND 1-WILDCARD ROUND
DETROIT LIONS @ ATLANTA FALCONS Atlanta Wins
DALLAS COWBOYS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS Dallas Wins
DIVISIONAL ROUND
DALLAS COWBOYS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS Green Bay Wins
ATLANTA FALCONS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES Philadelphia Wins
CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ GREEN BAY PACKERS Green Bay Wins
GREEN BAY PACKERS ADVANCE TO SUPER BOWL
SUPER BOWL
GREEN BAY PACKERS VS. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS San Diego Wins
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS- SUPERBOWL CHAMPIONS
SUPERBOWL MVP- Phillip Rivers QB SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
2011 NFL Predictions: AFC Final Standings & Playoffs (10 of 13)
2011 NFL PREDICTIONS
STANDINGS
AFC
AFC EAST W-L DIV CNF H A
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS | 12-4 | 5-1 | 9-3 | 7-1 | 5-3 |
NEW YORK JETS | 10-6 | 4-2 | 7-5 | 7-1 | 3-5 |
BUFFALO BILLS | 8-8 | 1-5 | 5-7 | 4-4 | 4-4 |
MIAMI DOLPHINS | 6-10 | 1-5 | 5-7 | 3-5 | 3-5 |
AFC NORTH W-L DIV CNF H A
BALTIMORE RAVENS | 11-5 | 5-1 | 7-5 | 6-2 | 5-3 |
PITTSBURGH STEELERS | 11-5 | 4-2 | 7-5 | 6-2 | 5-3 |
CINCINNATI BENGALS | 5-11 | 2-4 | 5-7 | 1-7 | 4-4 |
CLEVELAND BROWNS | 5-11 | 1-5 | 4-8 | 3-5 | 2-6 |
AFC SOUTH W-L DIV CNF H A
HOUSTON TEXANS | 11-5 | 4-2 | 9-3 | 5-3 | 6-2 |
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS | 10-6 | 3-3 | 7-5 | 5-3 | 5-3 |
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS | 6-10 | 4-2 | 6-6 | 3-5 | 3-5 |
TENNESSEE TITANS | 2-14 | 2-4 | 2-10 | 1-7 | 1-7 |
AFC WEST W-L DIV CNF H A
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS | 10-6 | 4-2 | 8-4 | 7-1 | 3-5 |
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS | 6-10 | 2-4 | 5-7 | 3-5 | 3-5 |
OAKLAND RAIDERS | 4-12 | 4-2 | 4-8 | 2-6 | 2-6 |
DENVER BRONCOS | 3-13 | 1-5 | 3-9 | 2-6 | 1-7 |
*Note: Baltimore won AFC North over Pittsburgh on virtue of Division Record
PLAYOFFS
DIVISION WINNERS
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS EAST 12-4 SEED #1 RND 1 BYE
HOUSTON TEXANS SOUTH 11-5 SEED #2 RND 1 BYE
BALTIMORE RAVENS NORTH 11-5 SEED #3
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS WEST 10-6 SEED #4
*Note: Houston won #2 Seed and 1st Round BYE over Baltimore due to Head to Head Victory.
WILDCARDS
PITTSBURGH STEELERS NORTH 11-5 SEED #5
NEW YORK JETS EAST 10-6 SEED #6
*Note: New York Jets won Wildcard-#6 Seed over Indianapolis due to Winning Percentage vs. common opponents, as Head to Head didn’t take place, and Conference Records were the same.
PLAYOFFS ROUND 1- WILDCARD ROUND
NEW YORK JETS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS NY Wins
PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS San Diego Wins
DIVISIONAL ROUND
NEW YORK JETS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS New England Wins
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ HOUSTON TEXANS San Diego Wins
CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS San Diego Wins
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