2012 NFL Season Review and Postseason Predictions

First off I wanted to thank all those that have been following my game predictions all year.  I hope you found my picks entertaining.  I've been picking games since I was a little kid, but never really tracked the results.  I started last year, going 168-88 for the year.  I compared my results to whatever predictions I could find and I couldn't find any one out there having a better win-loss record.  It's a bit unfair of a claim, as many of those out there use the spread, which I don't.  I guess If I really wanted to, I could look at the scores predicted and see how I faired, but admittedly that's a bit too much work.  So, next year I think I'll do both the games and the games against the spread.

When I started this second season, my goal was to beat last years mark.  I actually wanted to hit above 75% correct, which I didn't do, but I did beat last years mark.  In week 17 I went 12-4 and finished the season with a 175-81 mark, beating last year by 7 games.  So, my goal is set for next year as well.

For this final post for this 2012 season, I'm going to pick the Wildcard games taking place this weekend and then pick the rest of the playoffs. I'll also give my takes on the awards.

Wildcard Games

Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans

The Texans were monsters most of the season but had a terrible end to the year.  A month ago nobody would've dare predicted that they'd drop so far as to fall out of the top two seeds.  They did that and they lost their bye in the process.  Instead, they must host the Bengals in a rematch of last years Wildcard game.  Last year Houston advanced past the bengals and lost in Baltimore the following weekend.  This year though, they'll be facing a red hot Bengals team.  They've gone 7-1 in the past 8 games and in the game they lost, to Dallas, they were actually up by 9 late in the game, only to watch the lead and the game disappear.  Houston is rightfully favored, being home and to honor the season that they've put up.  However, I do believe that the Texans defense is hurting and they haven't been getting the running attack that is typical from an Arian Foster based ground game lately.  Cincinnati's defense is running on all cylinders and the Dalton-Green connection is still strong.  I think this will be a close game, but a game that I think Cincinnati will wind up winning when all is said and done.  Cincinnati 27-21

Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore finished well.  But they are not unbeatable by any stretch of the imagination.  Indy is the feel good story of the year.  A team written off for dead before the season even began.  They have the most rookies starting or playing serious minutes out of any team this year.  They saw their new coach Chuck Pagano diagnosed, treated and then return for their final week of the season.  It was an emotional game that saw the Colts beat their division rival Texans.  This year was all about seizing the opportunity at the right time and getting quality play, especially on game tying/winning drives by rookie QB Andrew Luck. Overall though, on paper, they really aren't all that impressive.  But they pulled off 11 wins and they are the Cinderella story of this years playoffs.  I'll be pulling for them, but with all the rookies and inexperience here, they'll be facing a team that's been there and done that in the Ravens, who will be home.  While anything is possible, and I do hope I'm wrong, but I think Baltimore will take this one.  24-20

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers

Minnesota's been another superb story this year.  They were another team that nobody predicted anything out of before the season and quite frankly, they are one dimensional on offense.  But boy oh boy, that dimension is crazy good.  They beat the Packers last week to get in this game, but I don't see them doing it two weeks in a row.  It's tough to pick this, seeing how they played last week, and it's not like GB packed things in early, as they didn't.  But, the Packers are a tough team, especially at Lambeau.  Sure there powerhouse team got beat up by the Giants last year, and they did lose to this very Vikings squad last weekend, but I just think the odds are in GB's favor.  GB 35-32

Seattle Seahawks @ Washington Redskins

Another game of two teams nobody thought would be playoff bound this year.  Both teams have stellar rookie QB's and are playing an entertaining brand of football with their pistol/read-option sets.  I really think Seattle deserves to be the road favorite here, but, I have a feeling RGIII will get things done. Garcon on Marshall will be a great matchup to watch, one that I do believe will determine how the game goes.  If he can take Garcon out of the picture, then look for a healthy dose of Moss and RGIII scrambling from the pocket.  Washington in a great game 38-37

Divisional Rounds

Cincinnati Bengals @ Denver Broncos

I like Denver to make it to New Orleans.  Manning is unbelievable this year and the Denver defense can attack.  Denver 35-21

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots

New England will be healthier and they'll beat Baltimore in consecutive years.  New England 42-28

Conference Finals

New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos

Brady Vs. Manning.  One of the best QB duels of the decade gets to do it again.  I think this game would've gone to whoever has the home field advantage and seeing Denver does, I'll pick them to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.  Denver-31-28

In the NFC

Divisional Rounds

Washington Redskins @ Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta won the home-field advantage but I'm just not that impressed with them on defense.  I like RGIII against them and will take Washington here.  Actually, If Washington loses to Seattle, I'll take Seattle over Atlanta as well.  Washington 24-17/ Seattle 21-20

Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49'ers

Niners have found new life with Colin Kaepernick at QB.  They still have an outstanding defense as well.  I like Green Bay though.  Green Bay has so many weapons and are getting healthier as each week passes.  I can't wait to see what Rodgers does in the playoffs. GB 30-13

Conference Finals

Washington Redskins/Seattle Seahawks @ Green Bay Packers

Either way.  The feel good stories end.  Green Bay is more experienced. They are more talented.  I like what RGIII can do, but in Lambeau at this time of the year, I have to say determines the game.  If it's a blizzard, I think either Washington or Seattle wins, pretty much for the same reason, that neither know they aren't supposed to win and I love both teams running backs.  Green Bay is sorely lacking a back to rely upon, so if the weather is frightful, I think Aaron Rodgers and company may get grounded.  But, seeing I can't predict the weather, I'll take GB over either by the same score.  GB 34-24

Superbowl

Green Bay Packers Vs. Denver Broncos

Manning vs. Rodgers.  Draw.  Thomas and Decker vs. Jennings, Nelson, Cobb, Jones and Finley  Packers.  McGahee and Moreno vs. Grant  Denver.  Denver D Vs. GB D  Denver.  Coaching.  Fox Vs McCarthy Draw.  I'll take Denver 34-31.  Manning MVP

As for Awards, briefly:

AFC Offensive Outstanding Player- Peyton Manning

NFC Offensive Outstanding Player- Adrian Peterson- Also wins NFL Offensive MVP

AFC Defensive Outstanding Player-JJ Watt-Houston-Also wins NFL Defensive MVP

NFC Defensive Outstanding Player-Richard Sherman

AFC Rookie of The Year- Andrew Luck

NFC Rookie Of the Year- RGIII  also wins NFL ROY

AFC Coach of the Year- Chuck Pagano/Bruce Arians-Also wins NFL Coach of the year

NFC Coach of the Year- Leslie Frazier

NFL Executive of the Year- John Elway/Brian Xanders

Okay.  Hope everyone enjoys the playoffs.  And for those of you whose teams are not in the postseason, perhaps you'll be in on this coaching frenzy going on right now.  I'm certainly enjoying it right now and very eager to see how things shake out.  My pipe dream is for my Bills to land either Chip Kelly or Jon Gruden.  But more than realistically, I'll take Lovie Smith, Mike McCoy, Mike Zimmer, Gus Bradley or Ray Horton.

See you all around Draft time.  I'll put up a few mocks before then, starting about a month before April's Draft.  

Thanks again, and see you later on in the year.  

NFL Playoffs Championship Games

It was a pretty fun divisional round of the NFL playoffs last weekend.  Outside of the New England Vs. Denver games all the games were pretty competitive and in that held a high level of entertainment value.

The Green Bay loss to the New York Giants was nothing but shocking to me.  I was well aware of the Packers deficiencies on defense this year and also knew that Eli Manning can and has been able to get hot late in seasons and then into the playoffs before but I just didn't see the Giants defense, which really wasn't all that great, outside of JPP and pass rush, through the season, holding Aaron Rodgers and company down like they did.  Perhaps the resting of the players hurt more than anyone could have foreseen?

The Baltimore Ravens win was impressive because it got them to the AFC championship game, but it was a sloppy game and if the Texans hadn't turned the ball over 4 times in this game I am thinking that it could have been a different outcome altogether.  But a good deal of credit must be given to the Ravens defense as they did create the takeaways, but not enough was shown offensively in this one, nor during the season for that matter, to show me that they can seriously vie for the AFC's representation in the Super Bowl.

The game of the week, hands down, was the San Francisco 49ers last second win against New Orleans.  This game was fun and exciting.  It showed Alex Smith as a QB that can be the reason his team wins instead of a team that wins in spite of their lackluster QB.  The action at the end of the game was great TV.

AFC Championship Game


Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots

If this was any other team facing the Patriots I'd feel a little better about their odds going against this maligned bunch of New England defenders, but the Ravens are by far, not an offensive juggernaut, which they'll need to be highly effective to keep pace with Tom Brady, his TE's and his offense this week, because they certainly can be that type of powerhouse offensive unit.  I see this game as close, because of the Ravens defense, through 3 quarters but with the Patriots pulling away early in the fourth and making the score look worse than it actually was for 4 quarters.  NE 35 Baltimore 17


NFC Championship Game


New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers

The niners have the defense and last week, when so many naysayers, including myself, didn't think they could muster the offense to keep up with Drew Brees, were proved oh, so wrong, it looks like they have a complete team heading into the championship game.  Eli Manning is, and has proven himself to be, a clutch big-game performer and this is, obviously, a big game.  The Niners defense is for real though and they'll do their best to force the Giants into situations they don't want to be in. They also have a tendency to create turnovers.  The Giants defense shut down Aaron Rodgers last week and Matt Ryan the week before so it's not out of the realm of possibility that they go ahead and shut Alex Smith down this week either.  But I believe this game will be decided by the defense of the 49ers.  The niners offense has shown, all season long, to be able to get into field goal range on a consistent basis.  They trust their defensive unit so much that a bunch of field goals is A-ok with coach Harbaugh.  So I firmly believe that Eli will need to rack up the points here for the giants to win.  If he does then I like NY here, but, that said, with last week still on my mind, will, even then, Alex Smith be able to open things up like he did against the Saints.  I'm not sure in that case, but I have faith in the SF defense to hold back the Giants just enough here.  SF 24 NYG 20

SUPER BOWL  New England Patriots Vs. San Francisco 49ers

A couple of side notes on this weekend's games:

If the Giants win, there will be a rematch of a recent Superbowl.  Giants  lost to the Ravens some years back and then it was the Giants that defeated the Patriots a few years ago, thus ending their bid for perfection.

If the Ravens beat the Patriots and SF beats the Giants we'll get a brother vs. brother showdown in the Super Bowl, a rematch of the Thanksgiving night game that Baltimore won at home.

Should be a fun couple of games.  I know I'm looking forward to them.

NFL Playoffs Round 2 Game Predictions

In the Wild-Card games last weekend, we saw Houston, New Orleans, New York Giants and Denver pull off the first wins of the NFL playoffs.  I went 3-1 last weekend, only missing on the Denver game, which I'm actually happy they won, just didn't think they would.

Week 2 Playoff Games.


AFC


Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens

Decent game by the numbers and I do like the Ravens at home.  But that said, I won't by shocked in the least bit if Houston wins either.  Baltimore, on offense, has a somewhat shaky QB in Joe Flacco and some so-so guys for him to throw the ball to.  But they have Ray Rice and a solid defense.  Houston, if it weren't for rookie QB TJ Yates manning the ship, I would have to say would probably have taken the 2-seed, and also would have taken this matchup.  The Texans still have Arian Foster and Andre Johnson is back so they can move the ball against the Ravens while their defense has been pretty darn good all year.  A close one, but I'll hedge my beats on the more experienced playoff squad, that being Baltimore.  Ravens 28  Texans 24


Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots

Tough game to try and break down impartially.  I hate the Patriots and really like Tim Tebow.  So you know where my heart is here, but how, just how can I make a case for the Broncos to win here.  It's tough, especially in light of the game a few weeks ago between these teams.  But, if Denver has a chance here it has to be done in my opinion by exploiting the NE secondary and seeing Tebow threw the long-ball pretty well last week, who knows.  The Broncos defense can be scored upon, but have been pretty good all year, so they just have to keep the score close.  But can they, that's really the BIG question here.  NE 35  Denver 23


NFC


New Orleans @ San Francisco

The Niners under rookie HC Jim Harbaugh have got this far on smart offensive play-calls center-pieced by the short throw and a heavy reliance on the run and their PK David Akers.  Yeah, they have an all-world defense too.  But I don't care how strong this defense has been all year, they won't be able to keep Drew Brees down all day, and for the hometown team to pull this game out and advance, Alex Smith will have to keep pace with Brees, a task I can't envision happening.  Having to keep pace means making more throws over 15 yards and when Smith has to do this he typically makes some costly mistakes.  Well, we'll see.  NO 28  SF 20


New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers

This should be the marquis game this week.  I love the Giants offense when they are effective but can't stand it when they're not.  They'll have to be effective here, as Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense only knows effective.  I look for a high scoring game as both defenses can be scored upon, but I just think Rodgers is lightyears better than this Manning and therefore the Pack should win this game.  GB 45 NY 35

Enjoy this week of Playoffs and see ya next week.

NFL Week 17 Wrap up and Wild Card Games

Well, unfortunately the 2011 NFL regular season is now over with. I went 9-7 this past weekend, which was, as I found, the most difficult week to predict anything, with all the starters sitting and the unpredictable benching of top tier talent, i.e, Stevie Johnson, Santonio Holmes, and I know there was another one I'm forgetting about, it made getting these picks right rather tough.  So 9-7, while it isn't great, and while it did move my record to a pretty impressive 168-88 season mark, I missed my season goal of a .750 winning percentage, as my record was only .656.

Anyway, for a first time actually writing my picks down on a weekly basis, I'm happy with the results.  I'd always felt I was pretty good at grasping the landscape of the NFL and making pretty good picks on a weekly basis, so this was nice to know it all wasn't in my mind.  What I like the most about this is how I know my record and I checked briefly around with how the experts finished and I haven't seen one that had a better record than my own, so who knows, maybe someone out there has been reading along and wants to hire me for next season- Hint, hint..But seriously, it's been fun and I look forward to the playoffs.


For most fans, well, for those like myself, who has just finished watching their team play their last team of the season, well, there's always next year.  As a die hard Buffalo Bills fan, those words are etched as some oh, so familiar words.  But the NFL still goes on, and the teams that deserved the playoffs, with a few exceptions as there always is, made the playoffs.

Green Bay, San Francisco, New England and Baltimore finished as the top two seeds in their respective conferences and will get a much needed bye this weekend.  As long as Green Bay and New England are alive in the playoffs they'll play at home, the reward for having the #1 seed.

The Wild Card Games


Saturday's Games


Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans

While I don't feel the Texans will make it past the second round, which is a disappointment, as they are the team I'll be pulling for.  But for a first time ever playoff berth, riding a 3rd string rookie QB and the Andre Johnson injury can spring up again at anytime, it's tough to see them getting by the NE'S or Baltimore's of this world.  But who knows, really, once you get here anything can happen.  Just look at the Seahawks last year.  For this game I think Arian Foster and Ben Tate can hold their own against the respectable Bengals defense and the Texans have been solid themselves defensively, so I would imagine they will double AJ Green all day long and make the Bengals try to win using Simpson and Benson, as I think Gresham will be neutralized by the Houston Linebackers.  Houston 24  Cincinnati 14


Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints

Two of the fun teams to watch got stuck playing each other in the first round.  I would have much rather have seen Detroit Vs. NYG and Atlanta take on NO, but that's not the way things fell.  This game should be high scoring and let's see if Detroit can hold back on taking the number of penalties they took earlier this year.  In week 13 these QB's, (Stafford and Brees) put up almost 800 yards of passing and while I can't expect that again, I do expect an explosive game, mostly through the air.  I do like the Lions and will pull for them, as they are in a lot of ways similar to my Bills, being perennial cellar dwellers, I do wish them well.  But, when it comes down to having to pick a winner here, for me, it seems rather easy.  New Orleans is pretty darn tough at home and Brees has been crazy lately, add in Colston and Graham playing out of their minds, I have to pick the Saints.  NO 45 Detroit 31


Sunday's Games


Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants

I can see Atlanta winning here, but I won't pick them.  Atlanta has been playing great football with Matt Ryan just finishing off a pretty nice year and his top receivers, Jones and White, alongside Gonzalez and Turner make for a formidable test for Big Blue.  And while you can't really say for sure what Giants team will show up, I do think Eli knows how to win when it counts and Coughlin should have them ready for a win here at home.  NYG 30  Atlanta 24


Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos

I love everything that Tim Tebow represents in the NFL, but coming off 3 straight losses and only making it to the playoffs due to a Raiders loss doesn't really exude much conference as they go against a team, that if things would've fell in place for them yesterday could have had home-field advantage for the playoffs and the #1 seed.  That said Tebow has done the unthinkable before, I just can't see a scenario where that happens against the mighty Steelers.  Pittsburgh should handle the Broncos rather easily here.  Pittsburgh 35  Denver 14


So I guess that I'm predicting the second round match-ups will be Houston @ Baltimore and Pittsburgh @ New England in the AFC and NYG @ Green Bay with NO heading to SF in the NFC.  But we'll see how things shake out.  After all, it is the NFL, where stranger things have happened.

Enjoy the playoffs, and if your team is still alive, good luck.

Fantasy Football League Playoffs-Round 1

Well the regular season is over with.  During that span I picked 48 of the 78 games correctly.  I actually had some bad math along the way, so for those following along I apologize for that, seems I didn't add up the losses correctly.  So with a 4-2 mark last week I went 48-28-2 for the season.  But there is still 5 meaningful games remaining, giving me a pretty good shot at the 50 correct picks I was shooting for at the start of this thing.

I'm not going to talk about the individual losses this week.  This is all about playoffs from this point forward.  But I would like to say that I think it was great how close it was and there can be a number of factors involved as to why, but the moving up of the trade deadline I think was the most glaring reason why.  Why?  Simply because some teams assess their teams as being out of it and trade away all their talent, which we still saw this year but not nearly to the degree we normally see.  This then almost forced a few teams who could have thought they didn't have a chance into a do or die position and it just made for better games as the season unfolded.

The Final Standings for the regular Season:

1.   Blood & Thunder      11-2
2.   Repeal Obama         10-3
3.   Mission: Repeat         9-4
4.   6Wide                    7-5-1
5.   Manning Vs. Food       7-6
6.   Thug Life                    7-6
7.   Clean Slate                7-6
8.   Cinderella Story         6-7
9.   F&*& Philly                 5-8
10. Iron Pigs                  4-8-1  
11. DreamKiller             2-9-2
12. 7 QB's Deep             1-12

The Playoffs are the first six teams listed with the first and second seeds receiving byes this week.  They'll both be in action next week facing the winners of the 3-6 and 4-5 match ups.

On to this weeks playoff match ups

3. Mission: Repeat Vs. 6. Thug Life

QB

M:R rolls out Aaron Rodgers and Tim Tebow
Thug does the same with Big Ben and Matt Hasselback

Projected Points:  M:R 37  Thug 24

WR

M:R- Antonio Brown, Crabtree and Decker
Thug- Lloyd, Maclin and Boldin

Projected Points: M:R 20  Thug 30

RB

M:R- Ray Rice and Hillis
Thug-LeSean McCoy and Turner

Projected Points: M:R 29  Thug 33

TE

M:R uses Owen Daniels
Thug uses Vernon Davis

Projected Points: M:R 4  Thug 7

W/T

M:R uses Golden Tate
Thug uses Santonio Holmes

Projected Points M:R 4  Thug 8

W/R

M:R uses Willis McGahee
Thug uses Cedric Benson

Projected Points: M:R 11  Thug 10

K

M:R- Cundiff Vs. Indianapolis
Thug Gould  Vs.  Denver

Projected Points M:R 9  Thug 9

DEFENSE

M:R uses Denver (go figure) Vs. Chi
Thug uses San Diego (Could be smart or could backfire) Vs Buf

Projected Points M:R 17  Thug 11

Add it all up and you get Mission: Repeat  131  Thug Life 132  Wow, can't believe that came out so close actually.

But this is a really close game.  I think the key match-ups to consider are how those defenses fair and if M:R's flyers at WR can produce, can't really like a Decker, Tate, Crabtree, Brown package but hey, sometimes it's those types of players that drive the stake in.  Believe me I know.  So, I'll go with the numbers and Pick Thug Life here.

Then due to Thug Life's 6th seeding he'd face off against Blood & Thunder next weekend.

Which means Repeal Obama would get the winner of the other matchup

4. 6 Wide Vs. 5. Manning Vs. Food

QB's

6W- Romo and Kolb
MVF- Manning and Brees

Projected Points: 6W 18  MVF 38

WR's

6W- Bowe ( On Revis Island), Marshall (vs. Nmandi) & Torrey Smith
MVF- Garcon, and the GB duo of James Jones & Greg Jennings

Projected Points:  6W 17 MVF 16

RB's

6W- Shonne Greene & Chris Johnson
MVF- Lynch & Helu

Projected Points: 6W 35 MVF 24

TE

6W- Finley
MVF- Tony G.

Projected Points: 6W 8  MVF 8

W/T

6W- Malcolm Floyd
MVF- Scott Chandler

Projected Points: 6W- 4 MVF 4

W/R

6W- Michael Bush
MVF- Doug Baldwin*

I'm assuming that MVF will play Bradshaw over Baldwin or Switch up Baldwin and Chandler, but prediction here is how lineup currently is set.

Projected Points: 6W 18  MVF 3

K

6W Bryant Vs. Carolina
MVF Rackers Vs. Cinci

Projected Points 6W 7  MVF 11

DEFENSE

6W Pittsburgh Vs. Cleveland
MVF Chicago Vs. Denver

Projected Points: 6W 14  MVF 9

After adding each teams score I get: 6 Wide with 121 and MVF with 113

Sounds about right actually, meshes up with my initial eye test as 6 Wide has some nice matchups with Torrey Smith going against the Colts and Chris Johnson Vs. the Saints, but Mike Bush is the X-Factor here, if GB gets up big early it could severely deflate his value as Oakland will pass when behind.  That said Mike Bush is a must start.

As far as MVF goes, you can't like Garcon, Baldwin, Chandler in your lineup, but heck the team scores megaloads of points even without his lethal early season RB duo.  If you can shut his QB's down you have a great chance.  While Lynch has been hot, and has a great matchup again this week, Helu is a victim of Shannahanigans and could get 20 points or 0 depending on how things role, yet still he has to be in the lineup.  As mentioned I'm assuming Bradshaw will be in there which should make the MNF game for Lynch meaningful.  but still, I think 6 Wide takes this one.

Leaving us with:

B & T vs. Thug Life

RO Vs. 6Wide

Probably the four teams that should be fighting for a Super Bowl Berth, but as with any other week in Fantasy anything can happen.

Enjoy the week and Good luck to those 4 teams listed above.

Fantasy Football League Week 13

Well I think I'm just going to forget about last weeks picks.  I went 2-4 which is easily my worst week of picking for the year.  My yearly record is still pretty good at 43-18-2 but I was hoping to hit 50 wins, which was a secret goal of mine this year.  Well, looks like I'll have to extend the tally into the playoffs now if I even have a chance at that mark.

Anyhow, I'm not going to recap specifically the 4 losses.  I will however make mention that I was shocked at the 165 Clean Slate dropped on Cinderella Story.  I saw the score before the Patriot game and thought the mockery would continue, where Cinderella laces up old Donavan McNabb with starting QB's sitting on the waiver wire.  But despite the amazing game NE-PHI was for Cinderella, the glass slipper is lost and will not be found again this year.  Clean Slate is alive in the playoff picture, which is:

1.  Blood and Thunder secured a first found playoff bye with his win over DreamKiller.  He keeps the #1 seed with a win or a Repeal Obama loss.  If he loses and RO wins then it'll come down to the tiebreaker, which RO will need to make up the 37 points separating the two teams.

2.  Repeal Obama's win makes him, in all likelihood, a lock for a first round bye.  I already mentioned how he can secure the #1 seed above, but he can lose the bye as well.  If he happens to lose and Mission:Repeat wins and wins by more than 42 points than RO scores he'll lock up the bye.  While not likely we've seen many routs this year, so who knows.

3.  Mission:Repeat keeps the #3 seed and has the previously mentioned shot at a bye with a win.  If he loses then playoff positioning depends on a number of things.  First, if 6Wide wins he'll get #3 seed and then M:R would either get #4 or #5 seed, depending on Thug Life.  If Thug wins then it'll come down to pts scored, which at present M:R only has a 1pt lead over Thug.

4.  6Wide  Locks up the #4 seed with a win and as mentioned can still move back into the #3 seed.  If 6 Wide Loses he can move down depending on Thug Life winning.  Actually he can slide all the way to the #6 seed if he loses and both Thug Life and Clean Slate win.

5.  Thug Life.  He's sitting here at the #5 seed and can finish at a number of seed positions.  As mentioned he can move into the #3 or #4 seeds but he can also be eliminated as well. If thug life loses to Manning Vs. Food he then needs a Clean Slate loss or he's eliminated.

6. Clean Slate.  He's in if he wins.  If he loses he needs some help from Thug Life.  The only way he makes it in with a loss is if Thug beat MVF, in which case would clinch Clean Slate in the #6 Seed.

Manning Vs. Food will make the playoffs with a win against Thug Life.  It is the old Win and In scenario and playoff game #2.  Last week was his first playoff match that he happened to beat the F Philly squad, sending them packing.  He cannot make the playoffs with a loss, but a win, coupled with a Clean Slate loss would give him the #5 seed and then allowing #6 to be filled by Thug Life, who would literally back into the playoffs if this scenario occurs, which I think it will.

Cinderella Story, Dream Killer, Iron Pigs and 7 QB's deep don't even have the spoiler play to look forward to, as Cinderella plays DK and IP plays 7QB's in what amounts to playing for pride and pride alone.

F Philly though, while out of the playoff mix can affect the playoffs with a win over Mission:Repeat, so his game this week at least offers him a but of that spoiler play.

As for this weeks games themselves:


Cinderella Story Vs. Dream Killer

Dream killer is on fumes and I think McNabb will outscore some of his players this week.  Now that Vick is officially eliminated he'll have to go with Palko, which isn't very pretty against Chicago, that is, if Orton doesn't get the nod.  Cinderella 95 DK 50


Iron Pigs Vs. 7 QB's Deep

Not much to say about his one.  It looks like the Pigs have headed to the pen as he started Jay Cutler last week despite Caleb Hanie, the new starter being on the WW.  So I'll pick the 7's here.  7QB's Deep 111- Iron Pigs 94


F Philly @ Mission:Repeat

McGahee and Rice may be the keys to this game for M:R.  If these guys come up small I think F Philly takes the pleasure in spoiling M:R's aspirations of a high seeding.  But I think both those backs will do fine and see this one as.  M:R 106 F Philly 103


Repeal Obama Vs. Clean Slate

The real Cinderella Story this year has been Clean Slate, just trying to get over the AP loss.  That one injury really hurt his team as bad as any could hurt a team.  He was there, in position to beat B & T when the injury took place two weeks ago.  So now he's just clinging onto life support, heading into a game where his opponent has some of the types of match-ups you hope to have in the playoffs.  Victor Cruz has been going nuts, and I can't see how he doesn't do the same this week, but if AP doesn't go, well I can't see a possibility he scores more points than RO's top 6, not to mention he has Jordy Nelson and Laurent Robinson in his flex spots.  RO 128 Clean Slate 100

6Wide Vs. Blood & Thunder

A really good match up on paper.  Some high quality in-game matches for both teams.  This one will surely come down to the MNF game where I see B & T needing about 24 points from MJD in that one, not impossible but to be realistic, it's a pretty lofty score to need here.  6Wide 132 B& T 129

Thug Life Vs. Manning Vs. Food

This is the main event.  As big a week 13 game as you can get.  For this reason I'd like to go through each of these teams rosters:

AT QB:

Thug life goes with Big Ben @home for Cincinnati & VY @ Seattle  Potential points 30

MVF goes with ELI @ home for GB and Drew Brees @ home for Detroit. Potential Points 40


AT WR:

Thug life goes with Lloyd vs. SF, Boldin vs. Cleveland and Holmes Vs. Washington.  Potential Points 30

MVF goes with Simpson vs. Pitt, Garcon Vs. NE and Meachem Vs. Detroit.  Potential Points 15


AT RB:

Thug Life goes with a very questionable LeSean McCoy Vs. a very difficult Seattle run defense and Michael Turner vs. a pretty solid Texans defense.  Potential Points 36

MVF goes with Marshawn Lynch vs. a Philly run defense that gives up RB points to RB1's and Johnny White vs. Titans.  Possible Points 17


At TE:

Thug Life goes with Vernon Davis vs. STL  Possible Points 13

MVF goes with Tony Gonzalez vs. Houston Possible Points 13

AT FLEX SPOTS:

Thug Life goes with W/T Denarius Moore vs. Miami, who is not listed here as questionable but I have heard from good sources that his being inactive is a possibility as of 3 hours ago.  W/R Cedric Benson vs Pitt.  Potential Points 16

MVF goes with W/T Scott Chandler vs. Tennessee and W/R Greg Jennings Vs. NYG's suspect secondary in what should be a high scoring game.  Potential Points 26


AT K and DEF:

Thug Life goes with Gould vs. KC and Giants Defense Vs. GB  Possible Total Points 4

MVF goes with Rackers vs. Atlanta and Bears Defense Vs. KC  Possible Points 20.

According to this outlook, which I'm sure will change by Sunday:

Thug Life 129


MVF 131


A couple points of advice if either team chooses to listen.  Thug Life, if I were you I'd pay the closest of attention on McCoy's status leading up to tomorrow nights game.  If he can't go, you need to have a capable backup ready to fill in. Also keep an eye on Moore, as I mentioned there are reports out there that his status is in jeopardy for Sunday.  I would probably play Hasselback vs. Buffalo if he's healthy, but then again I'm a jaded Bills fan who thinks our secondary is the worst on the planet.  I would also go get a different defense, it'll be -4 if you stick with it, which, if my outline goes right, would cost you the game.

MVF.  You can't roll with Simpson, Chandler, White, Meachem and Garcon.  I know looking at your recent transactions you don't intend to, but yeah, white can't be used, I do like the Helu and Jones pick ups as they are much better than any of your other options.  I'd scour the waiver wire for other options as well, there has to be better options out there.  I love Chandler, but he's risky, either boom or bust, but that said I might use him just the same, been missing a TE in our offense for so long, he was one of the highlights this year. Take the recommendations with a grain of salt, if you use them and you lose, just ask RO, I will not be responsible or take the blame-lol

Anyhow, I find this match-up the most intriguing, not just because it's a win and in type of game, but the fact the MVF was on fire early, loses his best 2 players and is still in this thing, pretty impressive.  Thug Life has had a great team on paper all year but as many of us know from our own rosters, variables and underperformance just sucks.

So, I think the Playoffs will shake out like this:

1. Blood & Thunder
2. Repeal Obama


3. Mission: Repeat vs. 6. Thug Life
4. 6-Wide Vs. 5. Manning Vs. Food

Enjoy the week of football

Fantasy Football League Week 12 Game Predictions

Week 11 solved a lot of questions and opened the door for a whole bunch more.  The final two weeks of the Fantasy regular season should be very interested as nine teams out of 12 are in this thing still.

I went 4-2 yet again last week, bringing my season record up to 41-14-2.

Going to do the post a bit different this week, so bear with me.

After Week 11 victories, Blood & Thunder, Repeal Obama and 6 Wide have clinched playoff berths.  Mission:Repeat is a virtual lock to make the playoffs, yet there is a scenario, albeit unlikely, where they fail to get their dancing card.

So we have four teams, for the most part, in already.  This leaves two spots up for grabs.  Thug Life looks like they'll make it in based on opponents and match-ups, but that said, things will get really dicy for them if they fail to produce a W this weekend.  But I'm going to include them as the fifth team, which leaves but 1 space open.

F Philly, Manning Vs Food, Cinderella Story and the current 6th seed, Clean Slate are all fighting for the final playoff slot.  And It will come down to Week 13 to settle all the dust here.

A brief rundown of events to come:

Blood & Thunder needs 1 win, either this week against DreamKiller or next week against 6 Wide to secure a first round bye.  He'll secure the first place seed by winning both, or winning one and a Repeal Obama loss.  If both teams finish with the same record it will come down to points scored, which currently are separated by I believe 12 points.

Repeal Obama doesn't clinch a bye with a win this week, but will make big strides towards that goal with a victory over 7 QB's Deep.  If he wins and 6 Wide loses he locks up the 1st round bye.  If not it'll come down to his week 13 match against Clean Slate.  He'll be watching the scoreboard as well, to see the B & T-6 Wide score, as any  6Wide loss in this scenario also locks him the 2 seed at least.  His possibility for the 1 seed was listed above.

6 Wide is in an odd situation having a tie in his record.  This tie can help him, which it already has, in regards to the playoff clinching, but it can work against him as he tries to move to a higher seed.  There are a few scenarios available to him, but to get into the first seed he needs 2 B & T losses because of that tie.  He can move into the second seed with two wins and two losses by Repeal Obama, or two wins and one loss by Repeal Obama, where points will then be the deciding factor, but he's currently more than 100 points behind in that respect.  Of course a couple of losses could push him down as well in the playoff seeding.  He plays Mission:Repeat this week and Blood & Thunder in Week 13.

Mission: Repeat is in with a win, on the virtue of the teams he would be battling for the playoff spot would be playing each other, thus knocking each other down.  If he wins this week, Yahoo may not recognize the clinching but he'll be in.  If he loses both games though things get dicy.  As he'll be looking at the scoreboard and hoping MVF or F Philly aren't the teams he's vying for a spot with as points could get interesting in such a case.  He plays 6 Wide this week which is a tough one for him and he finishes the season off against F Philly in Week 13.


Thug Life will get oh, so closer to locking up a spot with a win over Iron Pigs this week.  If needed he has the tough match-up against MVF in week 13.  As you can tell from these past few entries a lot will sort itself out over the next two weeks as teams fighting for playoff positioning are battling each other this year.  If Thug Life falls both weeks he'll probably be out, yet that's there's still a scenario for a berth if that happens, as if he finishes tied with Clean Slate, and the lowly points total they tote around, he'd win out in virtue of points.  But all this can be null if he takes care of business against the Iron Pigs this week.

Clean Slate, despite his current spot in 6th place, can't lose another game this year.  This is due to the teams around him and their match-ups, combined with the low point total his team has put up so far.  He's scored 1077 points while most teams are in the mid 1200's, meaning he'd have to outscore those teams by 250 points this week or next week, that is if he only won one of the next two weeks, and we know that scenario is next to impossible.  This all said though, if he wins his last two weeks, he'll be in.  It's really in his own hands.  But one loss and he's done.  He plays Cinderella Story this week and then Repeal Obama in Week 13, so his prospects don't look good.  The only thing that might save him, is a but on the collusion side, but it's still worth mentioning.  If RO locks up his bye this week, he could, and extremely unlikely for him to do this, he could punt week 13 if Clean Slate wins this week and is in the win and in scenario next week.  Will be interesting, but the fate is in Clean Slates hand.  And did I mention that he'll be without AP this week, and the Bills play the Jets.

Manning Vs. Food is in the 7th seed right now.  Barely outside looking in.  He plays F Philly this week, where the loser is out and the winner is still in contention.  MVF plays Thug Life next week so his future is clearly in his own hands.  Win both weeks and he's in.  Lose once and he's out.

F Philly is in the same boat as MVF. He must beat MVF this week and then beat Mission:Repeat next week.  One loss and they're done due to the various match-up scenarios involved here.  Although, if tied with Clean Slate for 6th seed, he'd get the nod because of points.

Cinderella Story is in 9th place right now.  It's truly remarkable that there is a scenario he makes the playoffs, as he's been starting McNabb each and every week and McNabb hasn't played in over a month.  Last week he picked up P. Manning, who probably won't play this year, when there were, albeit terrible options, starters available to pick up.  Instead he pulled this win off and is in position to at least have a shot to make the playoffs.  Obviously a loss in either week is a killshot.  He needs to beat Clean Slate this week and then Dream Killer next week.  Then he has to hope Clean Slate beats Repeal Obama in week 13 and that Thug Life loses both weeks with F Philly beating MVF this week and M:R beating F Philly in week 13.  If this perfect storm takes place, well then a Cinderella story this indeed would be.

Iron Pigs, Dreamkiller and 7 QB's Deep are obviously solely in the spoiler role right now, as each team has been eliminated for a few weeks now.


How I think this week will pan out.

Blood & Thunder Vs. Dreamkiller

I don't like B & T's team, yet they seem to win in outlandish mannerisms.  AP going down, S-Jax held to 3 pts, The Bills players Clean Slate had scoring 1 point for 3 players.  Really?  Anyhow I can't pick B & T, just can't.  DK gets his revenge.  119- 114

Repeal Obama Vs. 7 Qb's Deep


7 QB's have been competitive the past 4-5 weeks and should be again, yet RO should still this one out.  But, if Jordy Nelson and Megatron come up low tomorrow, we could have an interesting Sunday to watch. RO 122 7QB's 111


6 Wide Vs. M:R

Have to go six wide 118-117.  But, if Shonn Greene fails against the bills I can see it going to M:R.  I have Greene rocking out a cool 20 points against Buffalo this week

Clean Slate Vs. Cinderella Story

Too many injuries and guys on teams playing poorly will effectively end Clean Slates playoff aspirations and keep Cinderellas open a bit longer. Cinderella 1 105- Clean Slate 88


F Philly Vs. Manning Vs. Food

This is the match to watch this week.  Winner is in business as I see it.  any other week I'd take MVF 99 out of 100 times, but the perfect scenario befell F Philly.  He has half a roster full of Jets, that's a losing philosophy in and of itself....but not when they happen to be playing the Bills.  F Philly 120 MVF 115

Thug Life Vs. Iron Pigs

No cutler for Iron Pigs hurts their chances.  I can't see Thug Life losing here.  101-80

So you can figure out how things fit in to the above listed playoff scenarios.  Everyone have a happy Thanksgiving.  Enjoy the food and the games.

2011 NFL Predictions: NFC Final Standings & Playoffs (11 of 13)

NFC

STANDINGS

  

EAST                                 W-L   DIV  CNF     H     A

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES	11-5	4-2	9-3	4-4	7-1
DALLAS COWBOYS	10-6	4-2	10-2	6-2	4-4
NEW YORK GIANTS	7-9	3-3	7-5	4-4	3-5
WASHINGTON REDSKINS	6-10	1-5	3-9	4-4	2-6

NORTH                       W-L    DIV   CNF    H     A

GREEN BAY PACKERS	13-3	6-2	10-2	7-1	6-2
DETROIT LIONS	10-6	3-3	7-5	6-2	4-4
CHICAGO BEARS	8-8	3-3	5-7	4-4	4-4
MINNESOTA VIKINGS	7-9	2-4	3-9	4-4	3-5

SOUTH                           W-L    DIV   CNF    H     A

ATLANTA FALCONS	11-5	4-2	8-4	6-2	5-3
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS	10-6	5-1	8-4	4-4	6-2
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS	10-6	3-3	6-6	5-3	5-3
CAROLINA PANTHERS	4-12	0-6	2-10	4-4	0-8

WEST                            W-L    DIV   CNF    H     A

ARIZONA CARDINALS	10-6	5-1	8-4	5-3	5-3
ST. LOUIS RAMS	9-7	5-1	7-5	5-3	4-4
SAN FRANCSICO 49ers	4-12	1-5	2-10	3-5	1-7
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS	3-13	1-5	2-10	2-6	1-7

PLAYOFFS

DIVISION WINNERS

GREEN BAY PACKERS      NORTH     13-3           SEED #1   RND 1 BYE

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES    EAST        11-5           SEED #2   RND 1 BYE

ATLANTA FALCONS         SOUTH     11-5           SEED #3 

ARIZONA CARDINALS     WEST       10-6           SEED #4

*Notes:  Philadelphia receives #2 Seed and 1^st Round Bye over Atlanta due to Head To Head Victory

WILDCARDS

DALLAS COWBOYS      EAST          10-6           SEED #5

DETROIT LIONS          NORTH       10-6           SEED #6

*Notes:   Dallas, Detroit, Tampa Bay and New Orleans were all tied with a W-L record of 10-6.  New Orleans was eliminated by virtue of Conference Record.  Tampa Bay was eliminated by virtue of Winning Percentage Vs. Dallas & Detroit.  Dallas received #5 Seed due to Head To Head victory over Detroit.

PLAYOFFS ROUND 1-WILDCARD ROUND

DETROIT LIONS @ ATLANTA FALCONS             Atlanta Wins

DALLAS COWBOYS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS     Dallas Wins

DIVISIONAL ROUND

DALLAS COWBOYS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS      Green Bay Wins

ATLANTA FALCONS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES Philadelphia Wins

CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP      

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ GREEN BAY PACKERS        Green Bay Wins

GREEN BAY PACKERS ADVANCE TO SUPER BOWL

SUPER BOWL

GREEN BAY PACKERS VS. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS      San Diego Wins

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS- SUPERBOWL CHAMPIONS            

SUPERBOWL MVP- Phillip Rivers     QB     SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 

2011 NFL Predictions: AFC Final Standings & Playoffs (10 of 13)

2011 NFL PREDICTIONS

STANDINGS

AFC

AFC EAST                            W-L    DIV  CNF    H     A

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS	12-4	5-1	9-3	7-1	5-3
NEW YORK JETS	10-6	4-2	7-5	7-1	3-5
BUFFALO BILLS	8-8	1-5	5-7	4-4	4-4
MIAMI DOLPHINS	6-10	1-5	5-7	3-5	3-5

AFC NORTH                      W-L   DIV  CNF    H     A

BALTIMORE RAVENS	11-5	5-1	7-5	6-2	5-3
PITTSBURGH STEELERS	11-5	4-2	7-5	6-2	5-3
CINCINNATI BENGALS	5-11	2-4	5-7	1-7	4-4
CLEVELAND BROWNS	5-11	1-5	4-8	3-5	2-6

AFC SOUTH                       W-L    DIV   CNF   H     A

HOUSTON TEXANS	11-5	4-2	9-3	5-3	6-2
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS	10-6	3-3	7-5	5-3	5-3
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS	6-10	4-2	6-6	3-5	3-5
TENNESSEE TITANS	2-14	2-4	2-10	1-7	1-7

AFC WEST                       W-L   DIV  CNF   H    A

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS	10-6	4-2	8-4	7-1	3-5
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS	6-10	2-4	5-7	3-5	3-5
OAKLAND RAIDERS	4-12	4-2	4-8	2-6	2-6
DENVER BRONCOS	3-13	1-5	3-9	2-6	1-7

*Note:  Baltimore won AFC North over Pittsburgh on virtue of Division Record

PLAYOFFS

DIVISION WINNERS

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS       EAST          12-4   SEED #1   RND 1 BYE

HOUSTON TEXANS                SOUTH       11-5   SEED #2   RND 1 BYE

BALTIMORE RAVENS              NORTH       11-5  SEED #3

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS          WEST         10-6  SEED #4

*Note: Houston won #2 Seed and 1^st Round BYE over Baltimore due to Head to Head Victory.

WILDCARDS

PITTSBURGH STEELERS          NORTH       11-5  SEED #5

NEW YORK JETS                    EAST          10-6  SEED #6

*Note:  New York Jets won Wildcard-#6 Seed over Indianapolis due to Winning Percentage vs. common opponents, as Head to Head didn’t take place, and Conference Records were the same.

PLAYOFFS ROUND 1- WILDCARD ROUND

NEW YORK JETS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS   NY Wins

PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS San Diego Wins

DIVISIONAL ROUND

NEW YORK JETS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS New England Wins

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ HOUSTON TEXANS  San Diego Wins

CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS  San Diego Wins

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS ADVANCE TO SUPER BOWL