Well I think I'm just going to forget about last weeks picks. I went 2-4 which is easily my worst week of picking for the year. My yearly record is still pretty good at 43-18-2 but I was hoping to hit 50 wins, which was a secret goal of mine this year. Well, looks like I'll have to extend the tally into the playoffs now if I even have a chance at that mark.
Anyhow, I'm not going to recap specifically the 4 losses. I will however make mention that I was shocked at the 165 Clean Slate dropped on Cinderella Story. I saw the score before the Patriot game and thought the mockery would continue, where Cinderella laces up old Donavan McNabb with starting QB's sitting on the waiver wire. But despite the amazing game NE-PHI was for Cinderella, the glass slipper is lost and will not be found again this year. Clean Slate is alive in the playoff picture, which is:
1. Blood and Thunder secured a first found playoff bye with his win over DreamKiller. He keeps the #1 seed with a win or a Repeal Obama loss. If he loses and RO wins then it'll come down to the tiebreaker, which RO will need to make up the 37 points separating the two teams.
2. Repeal Obama's win makes him, in all likelihood, a lock for a first round bye. I already mentioned how he can secure the #1 seed above, but he can lose the bye as well. If he happens to lose and Mission:Repeat wins and wins by more than 42 points than RO scores he'll lock up the bye. While not likely we've seen many routs this year, so who knows.
3. Mission:Repeat keeps the #3 seed and has the previously mentioned shot at a bye with a win. If he loses then playoff positioning depends on a number of things. First, if 6Wide wins he'll get #3 seed and then M:R would either get #4 or #5 seed, depending on Thug Life. If Thug wins then it'll come down to pts scored, which at present M:R only has a 1pt lead over Thug.
4. 6Wide Locks up the #4 seed with a win and as mentioned can still move back into the #3 seed. If 6 Wide Loses he can move down depending on Thug Life winning. Actually he can slide all the way to the #6 seed if he loses and both Thug Life and Clean Slate win.
5. Thug Life. He's sitting here at the #5 seed and can finish at a number of seed positions. As mentioned he can move into the #3 or #4 seeds but he can also be eliminated as well. If thug life loses to Manning Vs. Food he then needs a Clean Slate loss or he's eliminated.
6. Clean Slate. He's in if he wins. If he loses he needs some help from Thug Life. The only way he makes it in with a loss is if Thug beat MVF, in which case would clinch Clean Slate in the #6 Seed.
Manning Vs. Food will make the playoffs with a win against Thug Life. It is the old Win and In scenario and playoff game #2. Last week was his first playoff match that he happened to beat the F Philly squad, sending them packing. He cannot make the playoffs with a loss, but a win, coupled with a Clean Slate loss would give him the #5 seed and then allowing #6 to be filled by Thug Life, who would literally back into the playoffs if this scenario occurs, which I think it will.
Cinderella Story, Dream Killer, Iron Pigs and 7 QB's deep don't even have the spoiler play to look forward to, as Cinderella plays DK and IP plays 7QB's in what amounts to playing for pride and pride alone.
F Philly though, while out of the playoff mix can affect the playoffs with a win over Mission:Repeat, so his game this week at least offers him a but of that spoiler play.
As for this weeks games themselves:
Cinderella Story Vs. Dream Killer
Dream killer is on fumes and I think McNabb will outscore some of his players this week. Now that Vick is officially eliminated he'll have to go with Palko, which isn't very pretty against Chicago, that is, if Orton doesn't get the nod. Cinderella 95 DK 50
Iron Pigs Vs. 7 QB's Deep
Not much to say about his one. It looks like the Pigs have headed to the pen as he started Jay Cutler last week despite Caleb Hanie, the new starter being on the WW. So I'll pick the 7's here. 7QB's Deep 111- Iron Pigs 94
F Philly @ Mission:Repeat
McGahee and Rice may be the keys to this game for M:R. If these guys come up small I think F Philly takes the pleasure in spoiling M:R's aspirations of a high seeding. But I think both those backs will do fine and see this one as. M:R 106 F Philly 103
Repeal Obama Vs. Clean Slate
The real Cinderella Story this year has been Clean Slate, just trying to get over the AP loss. That one injury really hurt his team as bad as any could hurt a team. He was there, in position to beat B & T when the injury took place two weeks ago. So now he's just clinging onto life support, heading into a game where his opponent has some of the types of match-ups you hope to have in the playoffs. Victor Cruz has been going nuts, and I can't see how he doesn't do the same this week, but if AP doesn't go, well I can't see a possibility he scores more points than RO's top 6, not to mention he has Jordy Nelson and Laurent Robinson in his flex spots. RO 128 Clean Slate 100
6Wide Vs. Blood & Thunder
A really good match up on paper. Some high quality in-game matches for both teams. This one will surely come down to the MNF game where I see B & T needing about 24 points from MJD in that one, not impossible but to be realistic, it's a pretty lofty score to need here. 6Wide 132 B& T 129
Thug Life Vs. Manning Vs. Food
This is the main event. As big a week 13 game as you can get. For this reason I'd like to go through each of these teams rosters:
AT QB:
Thug life goes with Big Ben @home for Cincinnati & VY @ Seattle Potential points 30
MVF goes with ELI @ home for GB and Drew Brees @ home for Detroit. Potential Points 40
AT WR:
Thug life goes with Lloyd vs. SF, Boldin vs. Cleveland and Holmes Vs. Washington. Potential Points 30
MVF goes with Simpson vs. Pitt, Garcon Vs. NE and Meachem Vs. Detroit. Potential Points 15
AT RB:
Thug Life goes with a very questionable LeSean McCoy Vs. a very difficult Seattle run defense and Michael Turner vs. a pretty solid Texans defense. Potential Points 36
MVF goes with Marshawn Lynch vs. a Philly run defense that gives up RB points to RB1's and Johnny White vs. Titans. Possible Points 17
At TE:
Thug Life goes with Vernon Davis vs. STL Possible Points 13
MVF goes with Tony Gonzalez vs. Houston Possible Points 13
AT FLEX SPOTS:
Thug Life goes with W/T Denarius Moore vs. Miami, who is not listed here as questionable but I have heard from good sources that his being inactive is a possibility as of 3 hours ago. W/R Cedric Benson vs Pitt. Potential Points 16
MVF goes with W/T Scott Chandler vs. Tennessee and W/R Greg Jennings Vs. NYG's suspect secondary in what should be a high scoring game. Potential Points 26
AT K and DEF:
Thug Life goes with Gould vs. KC and Giants Defense Vs. GB Possible Total Points 4
MVF goes with Rackers vs. Atlanta and Bears Defense Vs. KC Possible Points 20.
According to this outlook, which I'm sure will change by Sunday:
Thug Life 129
MVF 131
A couple points of advice if either team chooses to listen. Thug Life, if I were you I'd pay the closest of attention on McCoy's status leading up to tomorrow nights game. If he can't go, you need to have a capable backup ready to fill in. Also keep an eye on Moore, as I mentioned there are reports out there that his status is in jeopardy for Sunday. I would probably play Hasselback vs. Buffalo if he's healthy, but then again I'm a jaded Bills fan who thinks our secondary is the worst on the planet. I would also go get a different defense, it'll be -4 if you stick with it, which, if my outline goes right, would cost you the game.
MVF. You can't roll with Simpson, Chandler, White, Meachem and Garcon. I know looking at your recent transactions you don't intend to, but yeah, white can't be used, I do like the Helu and Jones pick ups as they are much better than any of your other options. I'd scour the waiver wire for other options as well, there has to be better options out there. I love Chandler, but he's risky, either boom or bust, but that said I might use him just the same, been missing a TE in our offense for so long, he was one of the highlights this year. Take the recommendations with a grain of salt, if you use them and you lose, just ask RO, I will not be responsible or take the blame-lol
Anyhow, I find this match-up the most intriguing, not just because it's a win and in type of game, but the fact the MVF was on fire early, loses his best 2 players and is still in this thing, pretty impressive. Thug Life has had a great team on paper all year but as many of us know from our own rosters, variables and underperformance just sucks.
So, I think the Playoffs will shake out like this:
1. Blood & Thunder
2. Repeal Obama
3. Mission: Repeat vs. 6. Thug Life
4. 6-Wide Vs. 5. Manning Vs. Food
Enjoy the week of football
Wednesday, November 30, 2011
NFL Week 13 Game Predictions
With each week I continually am reminded how close the teams in the NFL are matched. This makes picking accurately rather difficult. I did go 11-5, including the exact score in the Viking-Falcon game last week which is pretty good about 80%, which of course improved my yearly pick record, advancing it to 117-59, which I thought brought me back up and over the .750 marker. Yet I just realized that my math was off and I'm still a few good weeks away. Anyhow, the five losses last week:
I was probably one of the only people insane enough to actually believe that Detroit would beat the undefeated Packers, but I made that call and the loss was all but sealed when Suh got himself ejected.
Arizona-St.Louis was one of those toss up, close type of games. Really thought the Rams would pull it off, but Beanie Wells' 228 rushing performance and Pat Peterson's RTD sealed this one for the Cards.
Titans-Buccaneers game kind of hit me sideways. I really thought Freeman would build off the game he had in GB the week before, but nope, didn't happen, instead Chris Johnson had his second quality game in 3 weeks.
Washington-Seattle, well I don't believe in the Skins and I thought Seattle was showing signs of life with Lynch running hard, and they had a strong Defense, or so I thought.
I have to hand it for 15, he's getting it done, and reminding me why I never missed a Gators game while he was under center. Pretty surprised this Read Option Offense was able to outscore the Chargers. I know they are having their issues, but Von Miller for DROY anyone?
Onto Week 13:
Thursday Night Football
Philadelphia Eagles @ Seattle Seahawks
The Eagles will be without Mike Vick again this week as the short week didn't offer enough reps in practice. So VY will take the reigns again and he did actually look decent and then really good at times last week. Who knows what to think about Seattle. I can see them shutting the doors on the Eagles in this one at home, but I also can see Philly running amok. Eagles 30 Seahawks 20
Sunday Games
New York Jets @ Washington Redskins
I know the Jets pulled off a big win last week, but Sanchez was awful. And I say this despite his 4 TD's. He was the sole reason the Bills were even in a position to pull this one out. That said I'm not buying into anything being sold from Washington these days, especially when it comes to their football squad. Jets 21 Redskins 14
Kansas City Chiefs @ Chicago Bears
Palko or Orton vs. Hanie. NOT a pretty offensive matchup, and that's being kind. We know Chicago's defense has been pretty solid to elite all year and KC has also shown flashes of having a very good defense as well, most recently last week limiting the Steelers to 13 points. So I look for the team with the best Defense to win here, and at the moment I think this belongs to Chicago. Bears 13 Chiefs 9
Tennessee Titans @ Buffalo Bills
If Sunday is anything like today there could be some snow for the game, which really helps the Titans here. The Bills are decimated on both sides of the ball with Injuries. Yet, that said, they played a pretty good Jets Defense last week and looked good doing their thing. They've been strong in all but one of their home games this year, and despite a blackout looming locally I think they'll perform valiantly at home again. Bills 31 Titans 28 on a last second or OT FG
Oakland Raiders @ Miami Dolphins
The Miami feel good story came to an end in the last seconds of their Thanksgiving Day game against Dallas. While I don't think Oakland is Dallas, I do think they are much better than those teams the Dolphins beat the several weeks prior to last Thursday. Raiders 20 Dolphins 7
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers
This was a close game earlier in the year. This was the game that Cincinnati came out on fire, a fire that would die down just as quickly when AJ Green went down on his TD catch. Yet the game stayed pretty close. Without Joseph at CB though I think Big Ben should attack the Bengal secondary and have a big game here, giving the Steelers another victory. Steelers 24 Bengals 14
Atlanta Falcons @ Houston Texans
I want to pick the Texans here, as they've been playing inspired defense and dishing out an amazing running game each week. These things should continue, but they always had a few plays each game where Schaub would sling the rock, moving the chains and adding that extra dimension. They seemed confident last week when Matt Leinart got the gig but he went down too, so now, TJ Yates, a rookie, will take the reins. I think this glaring weakness will be enough for the Texans to fall to the up-and-coming Falcons. Falcons 24 Texans 21
Denver Broncos @ Minnesota Vikings
AP or no AP. It doesn't seem to matter, seeing Denver has 15 lining up for them. Denver wins another ugly yet effective one. Broncos 23 Minnesota 17
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I think this will be a game that Tampa offers a heavy dose of LeGarrette Blount. Hopefully they'll get some effective passing from Freeman. Newton's been a bit down lately in his performance, but he's got all the talent in the world and an elite WR in Smith, so this one is really arguable in either case. Buccaneers 28 Panthers 27
Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots
Only five more games Colts fans. Patriots 42 Colts 13
Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns
I know Colt McCoy had a pretty good game last week but he really doesn't have any wideouts to speak of, and that is what you need to beat the Ravens. Ravens 24 Browns 10
Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants
Will the Packers go undefeated? That's the big question going around these days and rightfully so. They look unbeatable and while the Giants haven't been playing quality ball since they took it to the Patriots in Foxboro, Eli Manning and Victor Cruz have shown they can put the points up each week. GB's defense has been giving points up in large chunks as well. So this game will be as simple as this, Can the giants keep up offensively with the packers. I don't really see this as anything but fantasy. Packers 42 Giants 34
Dallas Cowboys @ Arizona Cardinals
Sure the Cards look to be getting Kevin Kolb back but I can't pick them. Beanie won't run wild against the boys and I think the Romo-led passing attack will do just that against the terrible Arizona defense. Cowboys 35 Cardinals 14
St. Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers
I can't see the rams doing it this week, not after they couldn't get it done twice against the Cards. 49ers 17 Rams 6
SNF
Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints
Should be another fun game to watch. Should see a lot of points scored here. I just see the home field advantage to be the differences maker in this one. Saints 45 Detroit 34
MNF
San Diego Chargers @ Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars just fired their coach. They just sold their team, which seems to be staying put, and they just are horrible offensively. They do have an above average defense and Rivers and company have struggled. They did beat the Ravens though. As much as I try I just can't picture MJD getting 50 carries here, which is what I think it'll take to win on MNF. Chargers 27 Jaguars 20
Enjoy a great week of football.
Tuesday, November 29, 2011
Sunday, November 27, 2011
Saturday, November 26, 2011
Friday, November 25, 2011
Thursday, November 24, 2011
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