Monday, April 16, 2012

NFL Mock Draft Version 3

This will be the third version of my first round mock draft for the upcoming 2012 NFL draft.  A few weeks ago I composed the second version,  It had a few changes from Version 1, and there will be some changes to this version as well.  I'll try to do a final version just before the draft kicks off a week from this thursday night. But until then, I hope you enjoy this update.

1.  Indianapolis Colts-  Andrew Luck QB Stanford

The Colt's owner has been doing his fare share of feeding the speculative fire by his tweets and interviews, praising both Baylor QB Robert Griffin III as well as Texas A & M QB Ryan Tannehill, but I can't see them passing on the best pro prospect since Peyton Manning. Luck's a colt, I'll be shocked otherwise

2. Washington Redskins- Robert Griffin III QB Baylor

No changes here.  This is the guy Washington gave up a ransom to move up for and he'll be the pick.  If Indy happens to take him at number 1, I can't see Washington complaining that they got stuck with Luck.  These QB's are going 1-2 in one way or another.  * if Griffin is taken by the Colts I believe Luck will be the Skins choice, but if perhaps Tannehill goes first, I still see the skins taking RGIII, over the Stanford QB. This isn't to say I like RGIII better, which I don't, but with what I've read about Shanahan and what he likes out of his QB's and the early trade up, I think they've already begun integrating their offensive playbook around this guy, and for that reason alone, I think they'll stay with Griffin and leave Minnesota in the best possible situation they could ever hope for.

3. Minnesota Vikings- Matt Kalil OT USC

I really believe Minnesota will wind up trading this pick.  They have many needs and I've heard they have about 8 guys they would be happy with selecting, a few of which are rated in the 15-20 range, so for the right price I think they'd even entertain a dramatic trade down scenario.  That said, I think the compensation will have to wow them.  As to who, I'm not going to guess, but if they do make the trade it will alter the first 10 picks or so.  Staying put I know Claiborne is someone their HC covets, but I think they have to take Kalil.  So stays the same.

4.  Cleveland Browns- Trent Richardson RB Alabama

Therefore Richardson's still my pick here.  Although I think again, they'd like to make a trade, and very well may.  If Minnesota trades their pick and someone selects Blackmon or Richardson I do believe they'll try to capitalize on a trade. But as I've said all along, Richardson makes too much sense, unless of course they're sold on the A & M QB.  

5.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Morris Claiborne CB LSU

I'm hearing Tampa wants Claiborne and is ready to run up to make the pick.  Sure they'll entertain trades but if Claiborne is there, the trade will have to be something special, as they are that sold on the LSU CB. Richardson and if Kalil is there would be two guys I think they'd like to take as well, if Claiborne is gone and no trade partner

6.  St. Louis Rams- Justin Blackmon WR Oklahoma State

This pick hinges on what Cleveland does.  They are trying to trade up to 3 or 4 to take Richardson.  They've fallen for the Bama RB and for good reason.  But even if they don't trade up, there is a chance Richardson will be there for them, if not then they'll go with Blackmon or if Kalil is there he could be the guy.  Another quick note, I've heard they like Claiborne as well, but with the FA signing of Finnegan, I kind of doubt that will be the pick.  Anyhow, no changes yet.

7. Jacksonville Jaguars- Dontari Poe DT Memphis

I'm officially off the Jags taking a WR idea.  Not that Lee Evans is what he was a few years back, but he's not as injury prone as people are painting him, nor has he lost all that people are claiming.  He'll help Gabbert out, and I think they'll take a couple WR's later in the draft.  I think Dontari Poe is the pick.  I changed it from the Coples selection I had in V.2, for the simple fact that although more talented, I think DT is more of a need and while you shouldn't draft solely on need, Poe's storming up the draft boards and Jacksonville is not afraid to reach, not at all, as evidenced by the past 2 years drafts.

8. Miami Dolphins- Ryan Tannehill QB Texas A & M

This is the pick.  If Tannehill is gone, they'll go BPA or try to trade down.  Should they take him here?  No, not in my opinion.  But they want him and the connection with Mike Sherman is obvious.  So I feel very confident in this pick. * No changes here.

9. Carolina Panthers- Quentin Coples DE North Carolina

HC Ron Rivera is going defense with this pick.  The Question is who and at what position.  I think they'd love for Coples to be here, for obvious reasons and for being a UNC kid as well.  In this new mock Coples is there and I think it'll be a quick pick.  If he's gone I think they'll go Ingram, Poe, or perhaps Floyd.

10.  Buffalo Bills- Michael Floyd WR Notre Dame

I'll keep this pick where I had it last week.  Lots of talk on local radio about how much the Bills like Cordy Glenn, but I'm just not buying it.  The trading up scenario that gained some buzz a few weeks ago has all but dried up, and I don't think anyone is surprised.  That said the trade down buzz is still strong and that may be where a Cordy Glenn or Jonathan Martin reenter the Bills first round plans.  But staying put I like Floyd as the best value/need combo for them.

11. Kansas City Chiefs- Riley Reiff OT Iowa

They need OL help and particularly at T. No changes

12. Seattle Seahawks- David DeCastro G Stanford

I changed this pick.  First I thought they'd like to make a strength stronger, but since then they signed QB Matt Flynn to a big deal and DeCastro is a beast who can play at 4 spots on the line, something they need. No changes

13. Arizona Cardinals- Stephon Gilmore CB South Carolina

I went with the BC MLB in the first Mock.  I think they'll stay on the defensive side of the ball, but will feel Kirkpatrick is more of a value and snag him here. I still like Kirkpatrick better but Gilmore's moving fast up the boards.  I've actually heard that there are a few times grading him higher than Claiborne.  That's crazy in my book, but that just goes to show the volatility of draft stocks.  

14. Dallas Cowboys- Dre Kirkpatrick CB Alabama

Kirkpatrick is one of the guys Jerry Jones likes and I think with him still on the board they swoop him up.

15. Philadelphia Eagles- Cordy Glenn OT Georgia 

All along I was saying defense, MLB to be precise.  Yet the trade for DeMecco Ryans from the Texans shores that need up.  Sure, Kuechly will be talked about.  I've heard rumblings about Poe here as well.  I just don't think they expected Martin to fall to them and with the long-term injury to LT Jason Peters that just happened, they'll feel fortunate he did slide to them at 15.  * Note: Changed from Martin to Glenn.  Glenn is vaulting up team's boards and Martin is plummeting.

16. New York Jets- Melvin Ingram DE/OLB South Carolina

Same pick as before.  I think Poe will be considered.  I think Kuechly will be considered as well.  But this pick still makes sense to me and still feels right. Note: They get the best pure pass rusher in the draft in my opinion.  I think this is what they want. Fletcher Cox could be the guy but with Ingram dropping to them, I have to think they grab him quick.

17.  Cincinnati Bengals- Mark Barron S Alabama

Same position as last time, different player.  I think Jenkins issues will hurt him on draft day and may push him out of the first. Well, at least past this pick. * Note:  They want a CB and with the top 3 off the board, I think they like the receiver's that they can get with their 2nd first round pick.  So they take a guy way above where most experts have him, but they get the best S in the draft, a need.

18. San Diego Chargers- Luke Kuechly LB Boston College

SD really wants OL help here, but with the run on OL here, I think they'll be out of luck.  That said Kuechly is in my opinion BPA at this point and the pick. Note:  These mocks are tricky.  As I really can't see this guy dropping this far, but when you go team by team like this, he does. So I'll stick with this pick.

19. Chicago Bears- Whitney Mercillus DE Illinois

Mercillus will provide an instant reinforcement opposite peppers.  I thought they really wanted to bolster their weapons for Cutler and they still may, but if Floyd's not here, which I highly doubt he will be, I will buy into the buzz and I actually like him better than an Upshaw, Perry could be another guy to look out for here.

20. Tennessee Titans- Peter Konz C Wisconsin

Same pick as last time.  It's a big need for them and where I think they'll go.  Staying put here.  I really think this is almost a lock.

21. Cincinnati Bengals- Lamar Miller Rb Miami

They can take a chance at Jenkins. They can go with the stud DT in Fletcher Cox or one of the WR's left Stephen Hill is another guy I think they'll seriously look at, as well as Alshon Jeffrey, But I'm switching from DT to a Rb in V3. Miller is a game changer and to pair up with the Law Firm it makes for a formidable backfield.  Just a thought I had the past couple of days.

22. Cleveland Browns- Reuben Randle WR LSU

I like Hill, but Randle has the buzz about him and after looking at him, I really like him.  Actually hoping that if he doesn't go in the first round and my Bills go OT at #10, he'll be there in the early part of round 2.  That said I think the Browns pair him with Richardson and bolster their offense significantly. Massoquai, Little and Randle looks pretty nice on paper.

23. Detroit Lions- Jonathan Martin OT Stanford

I know they need CB help in a big way.  They're being reportedly in discussions with Philadelphia for Samuel but even with that trade they'd probably still look to one here.  The only CB left is Jenkins and I just don't think they want to add a potential problem to a team that already is known as a problem prone squad.  Adams helps the lions out for their future as the age of their LT is up there and Adams will be a guy they can groom. Note:  I think Martin is better than Adams, well he at least projects to LT.  His poor workouts had him slip and Detroit wants a guy to groom, perfect pairing in my opinion.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers- Nick Perry DE/LB USC

I do think if one of the OL prospects already taken were here, whoever that guy is would've been the pick.  I think Martin is a talented back and  with some questions surrounding Mendenhall lurking around, this pick makes some sense.  WR could also be the play here with a guy like Alshon Jeffrey from South Carolina Note: I've been reading the Steelers want Defense, so I'm going to give them a guy they will like a lot. This guy is multi-scheme ready and will definitely be a player for them

25. Denver Broncos- Fletcher Cox DT Mississippi State

Upshaw or Cox, these are the guys to look at.  Fox wants defense and since DT is more of a need and this guy is a stud, well, both guys are really, but I'll take the DT.

26. Houston Texans- Courtney Upshaw DE/OLB Alabama

I really, really wanted to give the Texans another WR opposite AJ, but with Upshaw available I had to go this route.  He won't make up for the loss of Super Mario completely, but he'll help and eventually this kid will be dynamic in the NFL. They'll be shocked he makes it to them.

27. New England Patriots- Shea McClellin DE/OLB Boise State

They need to replace Anderson and this guy's moving up the board fast and after reading up on this kid, what's not to like

28. Green Bay Packers- Coby Fleener TE Stanford

I think GB will be stunned as the Pats and Steelers have just taken the 2 guys they like the most with their picks in the past 4 picks.  I could go with a guy like Curry here, probably a safe call, but I'm going to throw a curveball in here and go with the speedy receiving TE.  Finley is injury prone and only has one year left with GB and they may well resign him, but NE has proven it doesn't hurt to have 2 stud TE's

29. Baltimore Ravens- Ronnell Lewis OLB Oklahoma

Same pick as last time, for the same reasons  No Changes

30. San Francisco 49ers- Vinny Curry DE/OLB Marshall

Same pick, same reasons No Changes

31. New England Patriots- Andre Branch DE/OLB Clemson

Same pick, same reasons No Changes

32. New York Giants- Michael Brockers DT LSU

The world champs can do whatever they want.  They won the SB so they get a pass.  and this plays into my theory that they just may take a chance here on a guy like Jenkins, but I really like Brockers, not only as a player but at this spot, I think he could easily go between 19-25 so here at 32 is great value.  I wouldn't be shocked if they went receiver either, perhaps WR Alshon Jeffrey from South Carolina or Stephen Hill from Georgia Tech or perhaps they'll decide to go Martin the RB.  I just think Brockers is perfect for big blue.

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