Saturday, December 31, 2011

NFL Week 17 Game Predictions

In week 16 I went 11-5 on my picks, which brings me to 159-81 for the season.  One week of regular season action to go.  I'll continue to make picks throughout the playoffs, but this is the last major week for predictions, so hopefully I'll make it count and pull off another 11-5 record or more, would be nice.

This coming week of games are all played on Sunday, January 1st and in so doing marks the first games played in the new year.  This can be of psychological significance to some teams, after all, irregardless of being in two separate seasons, I would gather most teams would prefer ending this season on a high note while remaining undefeated in 2012 before the games start in the 2012 season.

The games look pretty rough this week.  I've tossed ideas around, tried to get the feel for what teams are or will be doing this weekend and it's tough and quite frankly a crapshoot when all's said and done, thus the Saturday posting.  There are so many teams that just simply won't be playing for anything, other than pride that is.  Then you'll see some teams who have nothing to play for because they are already in the playoffs and while the possibility of moving up a seed is nice and all, I believe most coaches will prefer to ensure their elite stars and most important starters are rested and healthy going into their playoff games.  Yet there are some things still to be played for as well, which I'll touch upon as I go through this weeks picks.


Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots

The Patriots can clinch home field advantage throughout the playoffs and the #1 seed in the AFC with a win against the injury riddled Bills.  The Bills will come out trying to win this game, as many of the players are playing for next year already, in some shape or another.  But the Patriots will also be trying to fire on all cylinders.  Tom Brady, who was limited in practice all week is said to be ready to go for the game on Sunday.  How long it takes the Patriots to build up a big lead, to where they can insert reserves into the lineup is, well, how good or poorly the Bills defense plays.  New England 35 Buffalo 20


Dallas cowboys @ New York Giants

This is really the most important game of the week.  The winner is division champs, the loser misses the playoffs.  Lots of little side-stories here as well.  JPP vs Ware, who'll leave with the most sacks.  Felix Jones vs. Giants linebackers.  Romo, is the hand ready?  Eli, can he return to the way he was playing just a few weeks ago?  These questions and more will be answered on SNF tomorrow evening.  I think the home team comes out on top.  NYG 28  Dallas 27


Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals are fighting for their playoff lives in a win and in scenario. If they lose they may not make it into the playoffs, despite holding down the 6 seed for some time now.  The Ravens can clinch the division and the Bye week in the Playoffs.  So this should be a real game with starters a full go.  I think the Ravens are just a better ball club than the Bengals and should win the contest.  Ravens 24  Bengals 20


San Francisco 49ers @ St. Louis Rams

If SF wins they secure themselves the first round playoff bye, if they lose they'll have to scoreboard watch for the NO-Carolina score.  I don't think they'll have to watch any score, they should handle the lifeless rams rather easily.  SF 19  STL 6


Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints

The Saints can clinch the first round bye with a win and a 49ers loss, so you may see some injured players rest, but I do expect the Panthers to come out and play and make a game of it here, yet I still think Brees will be Brees for however long he's in there and the Saints should come out on top. NO 28 Carolina 21


New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins

The Jets need to win and they need help to make a bid for the chance to return to the AFC championship game again this year.  The odds are against them here, regardless of anything Rex Ryan says.  Miami is not playing for anything other than pride here, and I don't think that will be good enough.  NYJ 24  Miami 14


San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders

The Raiders need to win and get a Denver loss.  If it plays out like that, they'll then win the AFC West, if not they'll go home.  I think they'll win their game as I think the Chargers have already packed their bags and have begun their offseason a little early.  Raiders 28  Chargers 7


Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos

If Denver wins, they are in.  If they lose they can still win the division with an Oakland loss.  The Chiefs want to keep Romeo Crennel on as their HC for next season and will play hard for their interim coach.  Also, this game marks Kyle Orton's return to Denver since being cut a little over a month ago and being claimed off waivers by KC.  I think this will be a close game but at home I think the Broncos get this one done.  Denver 24 KC 17


Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans

The Texans can't really move, they are locked into that 3rd seed and most likely should rest their starters for this game.  That said I've heard that they want to go into the playoffs on a high note and will play their starters, Foster and Johnson included, until the win is apparent.  The Titans still have a chance at the final wild card if a number of scenarios pan out, but the one they can control is to win this game, something they have to do for any hope of a postseason berth.  I think they'll pull it out.  Titans 20 Texans 16


Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers

With the undefeated season ruined a couple weeks ago in KC, the packers will be playing their reserve players, saving the starters for the postseason.  Detroit can move into the sixth seed so they'll probably play their starters for about a half of football and see where things stand, as they do have guys that could use the rest before the playoffs start.  I think the Lions starters should be able to pull the win out over the Packers backups here, even if it's only for a half.  Detroit 17 GB 14


Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns

The Steelers can win the AFC North and gain a first round bye with a win and a Ravens loss.  The Ravens match up is much more difficult than theirs against Cleveland and they could use that extra week to rest Big Ben, so they'll go for it and even with Charlie Batch under center they should be good enough to beat the Browns.  Pittsburgh 20 Cleveland 13


Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons

Despite the possibility of sliding to 6th seed, Atlanta will probably rest their players here, many of them at least.  Tampa Bay has been terribly and Rodgers or Snelling should do fine against their porous defense and still pull out the win here.  Atlanta 30 Tampa Bay 21


Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars

While this game isn't meaningful in respect to playoffs or playoff positioning, it does bear a heavy significance.  If Indianapolis loses to division rival Jacksonville they'll secure the first overall pick in next April's draft and the right to draft Stanford QB Andrew Luck.  That said, If I'm Jacksonville I'm punting this game to avoid having to go from Manning to Luck.  They'll never come out and say that, and perhaps they'll actually try.  The Colts want to end the season on a winning note, it will be 3 straight if they can do this one, but really, what a price to pay if they do.  If the Jags play hard they'll win the game, if they mail it in as I expect the Colts will.  Indianapolis 23 Jacksonville 9


Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals

Neither team has anything to play for.  I'm assuming Pete Carroll would love getting his team to the .500 mark and to see Beast Mode roll some more, but the effort in the last game of the year is tough to predict.  I really hate to say who cares here, but I'm just getting that vibe.  I'll take Seattle as on paper, at least, they seem to be the better team this week.  Seattle 31 Arizona 27


Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles

It's no secret that the "Dream Team" in Philadelphia did not live up to the hype early on.  That said they've been playing great football, especially on defense, lately and I've heard they want to run LeSean McCoy all day long here, in hopes he wins the NFL rushing title, snatching it from first place MJD, to just give the franchise something to hang their hat on at the end of the year.  I don't see Washington laying down, but one has to wonder if this team cares at all in week 17, actually that's the big question to ponder for any of these non-playoff teams, as winning does and will hurt your draft status next April.  I see the Eagles pulling this out and McCoy taking the Rushing Title as well with a huge game tomorrow.  Eagles 31  Redskins 17


Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings

This should be a bad game and I see a lot of running here.  The game should be decided as to which backup running back fares better.  So, in essence, it's Chicago's Kahlil Bell vs. Minnesota's Toby Gerhart.  While I like Bell this week, I also like Minnesota at home, for Gerhart and for the extra things an athletic QB like Joe Webb can provide.  Vikings in a close one.  Minnesota 20 Chicago 17

Hope everyone enjoyed the NFL season and found a source of entertainment with my picks each week.  I'll be posting throughout the playoffs so keep tuning in.  Thanks and have a Happy New Year's.


Wednesday, December 28, 2011

Fantasy League Championship Results

Well, I didn't surpass that 50 win total, stuck firm to that mark by losing my prediction for the Fantasy League Superbowl.  It was a game that saw, as predicted, a ton of points scored, and solidified the fact that the best two teams duked it out for the 2011 title.

The streak has ended.  No, not Repeal Obama's streak of losing to the eventual Super Bowl champ, but Blood & Thunder's previous 0-3 in title games.

Blood & Thunder outscored Repeal Obama 160-133 in the big game.  He got great production from Matthew Stafford, Maurice Jones-Drew, Arian Foster, Reggie Bush and David Akers, while getting solid efforts by Jimmy Graham, Miles Austin, Josh Freeman, Stevie Johnson and the Cincinnati Defense.

What went wrong for Repeal Obama?

LaGarrette Blount's 1 fantasy point hurt bad, as did a basic no-show from Santana Moss.  This, in combination with solid, yet below expected, performances from Matt Ryan, Phil Rivers, Mike Wallace and SF defense, really put a damper on the huge games put in by Jordy Nelson, Calvin Johnson and Kevin Smith.

Validation.  That seems to be the chant in the Blood & Thunder locker room, as this victory cements this run of 4 straight super bowls with a Win.  One win and all the losses are put into perspective.

Although the title game just concluded, 11 GM's are already thinking ahead to 2012, scouring over keeper possibilities and just simply looking forward to another year of Fantasy Football.  As for the 12th team, well, he's just going to bask in this victory for a little longer before thinking of next year.

Thanks for following.  Hope you all have a great New Years and start to 2012 and I'll see you all next August-September for the start of the 2012 campaign.

Thursday, December 22, 2011

Fantasy Football League Super Bowl Prediction

Well, here we are, about an hour and a half away from the start of the Fantasy League Super Bowl.  I split games again last week, which rounds me out at 50-30-2 for the season, leaving only the championship game left to play.

In impressive fashion, Blood & Thunder and Repeal Obama devoured up their competition last weekend by scoring 168 and 166 points respectively, and will now face off for the league title, again, all beginning in under 2 hours time.

This year's championship is historic on a couple of notes.  First, this championship battle marks the first time Repeal Obama has climbed to the final two, after many years of being that guy that winds up losing to the eventual Super Bowl champion.  Then, we have Blood & Thunder, who is participating in his unprecedented fourth consecutive title game.  This record is, however, one that is mired in infamy.  Blood & Thunder clearly had the better team on paper in each of the last 3 title games, yet a string of unfortunate circumstances, poor play and the opponents good tidings in the manner of players stepping up who had not done so all season or the back up running back stepping into a starters role due to that teams starter going down the week before.  Blood & Thunder will try to validate his record, as he firmly believes, one championship will cement this four year stretch as a reign like no other we've ever been privy to before.  But to do that, he will need a win this weekend, against Repeal Obama, a team he beat in Week 9, in a game that by all intents and purpose determined the number one and two seeds in this years playoffs.

In that week 9 contest, a game that finished with Blood & Thunder scoring 127 points to Repeal Obamas 116 featured an odd cast of unlikely players coming through big-time.  John Beck and John Skelton led the way for B & T, in a game that also marked the first of a seven game stretch of quality games put forth by Miami RB Reggie Bush, a player that B & T only picked up from the waiver wire as a guy that could potentially provide some upside.  That game, perhaps or not, seemed to be a benchmark for Repeal Obama, in the fact that soon thereafter the RO GM decided to go trade happy, drastically altering the makeup of his roster, which, at this point seemed to have paid great dividends.  That game also took place where each team was not showcasing some of their top talent, due to byes and injuries.  Blood & Thunder had stars QB Matthew Stafford and RB Maurice Jones-Drew watching from the sidelines, while RO had superstars RB DMC and WR Calvin Johnson in street clothes.  Darren McFadden still has yet to practice, but is listed as questionable for this weeks game against KC.  If DMC does play, it will be a no-brainer for RO to start him, yet a decision that one has to wonder if any rust will be on the elite runner.

A brief look back at each teams production, beginning with their week 9 contest shows the following:

Blood & Thunder scored 127, 128, 103, 140, 169, 137, and 168 points in that span for a total of 972 points for, or a per game average of 138.9.

Repeal Obama scored 116, 110, 130, 115, 115, 130 and 166 points in that span for a total of 882 points for, or a per game average of 126.

Over that span B & T gave up 116, 117, 81, 94, 137, bye week and 116 points for a total of 661 points agains,which comes out to a weekly points against total of 110.17

Over that same span Repeal Obama gave up 127, 59, 121, 82, 68, Bye Week and 109 points for a total of 566 points, which comes out to a weekly points against total of 94.3.

Each team is currently riding winning streaks where B & T is looking for his 10th consecutive victory and Repeal Obama is looking for his 6th Consecutive win.

Tale of the Tape

QB's

B & T is going with Matthew Stafford and Josh Freeman
RO  is going with Matt Ryan and Philip Rivers

Projected Points:  B&T  25  RO 30

WR'S

B&T is going with Stevie Johnson, Miles Austin and AJ Green
RO is going with Calvin Johnson, Roddy White and Mike Wallace

Projected Points:  B&T 30  RO 38

RB's

B&T is using MJD and Arian Foster
RO is using Kevin Smith and LaGarrette Blount

Projected Points B&T 32  RO 23

TE

B&T stays with Jimmy Graham
RO stays with Brent Celek

Projected Points  B&T 9  RO 8

FLEX

B&T is going with TE Aaron Hernandez and RB Reggie Bush
RO is going with WR's Santana Moss and Jordy Nelson

Projected Points B&T 22  RO 20

KICKER

B&T stays with David Akers
RO stays with John Kasey

Projected Points B&T 10 RO 10

DEFENSE

B&T- Cincinnati at home Vs. Arizona
RO-  San Francisco @ Seattle

Projected Points: B&T 8 RO 10

TOTAL PROJECTED POINTS  B&T 136  RO 139

Should be a close game, high scoring as well, certainly capable of amassing the most points in a Super Bowl in league history.  Truly a game that can go either way, but with history not really on Blood & Thunder's side I'll concur with the above projected breakdown and think Repeal Obama will get his first fantasy football title while Blood & Thunder will always have "next year."

In either way some streak will have to break.  Either Blood & Thunder will snap his 0fer in super bowls or Repeal Obama will snap his losing to the eventual champion.  One will break and one will continue.

NFL Week 16 Game Predictions

Well, the year is certainly winding down and with only 2 more weeks of games, it is becoming highly apparent I will not reach my goal of .750 winning percentage for my picks. By going 9-7 last week, my win-loss record for the year is now 148-76, hovering around the .661 mark.  Even if I go 32-0 over the final two weeks, the best I can hope for is .703.

So, while that benchmark won't be reached, I still would like to finish on a strong note over these next two slate of games.

With all the unexpected events last week, it really won't serve much purpose to examine where each of last weeks 7 incorrect picks went wrong.  However, a strong part of those losses can be attributed to surprising, if not shocking wins by Carolina, Washington, Indianapolis and Kansas City.

As for this week:

Thursday Night Football


Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts

The Texans lost a game they probably should have won and the Colts won a game they probably should have lost last week.  The Texans just couldn't control Newton and the Panthers running game and rookie QB TJ Yates simply struggled most of the game.  The Colts were determined not to finish in infamy by going 0-16.  Now that that monkey is off their backs I'm expecting the Colts to revert to the way they've been most of the season.  Texan DC Wade Phillips will still be sidelined due to his recent surgery but I think the Texans ground game against a Colt secondary that just hasn't played that well, albeit playing ok as of late, should be enough to get the W here.  Texans 28  Colts 14

Saturday Games

The full slate of games are on Saturday this year, with the exception of the lone game GB vs. Chi on Sunday Night and the Monday Night game that pits Atlanta vs. NO.


Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills

The stadium is going to be empty and I have a feeling those that will be in attendance may be going simply to see Tebow time live and in-person.  The Broncos love to run the ball, with their QB and with whoever lines up in their backfield.  The Bills can't seem to stop the running, just surrendering 203 yards to Reggie Bush last week.  The sad thing is that those 203 yards are usually given up each week on the ground, just typically not to one player.  Broncos should win this game pretty easily.  Broncos 29 Buffalo 17


Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots

With Houston, Pittsburgh and Baltimore losses last week, the road to the Super Bowl looks as if it will go through Foxboro.  With the game this week against the Dolphins and next weeks home game against the Bills, it looks highly likely the Patriots will win out and claim the number 1 seed for the AFC.  Dolphins should put up a fight here, and I look for some production from their ground game and perhaps a decent outing by Fasano and/or Marshall, as the Patriot defense is pretty bad overall. But the Patriots will win, Miami won't be able to stop Brady, Gronkowski and Hernandez over the course of an entire game.  Patriots 34 Miami 23


Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens were destroyed last week vs. SD, they'll take it out against the Browns.  Ravens 34  Cleveland 10


Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs are playing for Romeo.  Rumor has it that if they win out they'll help remove the interim tag and make Romeo Crennel next years Head Coach.  The Raiders need to win to keep pace with Denver, and the Chiefs are technically still alive in the race.  So those are two interesting storylines here, as is the fact KC beat the then undefeated Packers last week.  I think KC pulls this one off as well in a lower scoring game.  KC 17 Oakland 14


Minnesota Vikings @ Washington Redskins

Redskins stunned the Giants last week and probably should win this game as well.  However, I just have a feeling the A.P. and Gerhart will run wild here.  Vikings 20  Redskins 13


Arizona Cardinals @ Cincinnati Bengals

The Cards are on a bit of a roll and the Bengals have slowed down as of late, despite winning last week.  The Bengal defense is pretty strong and the Cards O-line is giving up a lot of production so I guess I don't really think it matters who plays QB for Arizona, in fact I think we may see both Kolb and Skelton here.  Cincinnati 27 Arizona 17


St. Louis Rams @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Big Ben won't play here, so it'll be the Charlie Batch show.  Good thing the Ram secondary and run defense is pretty lousy.  That said I think the Steelers roll in this one, despite not having their franchise QB in the game.  Steelers 20  Rams 6


Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers

I don't know what to think of this game.  Really, I have no idea how to pick this one.  Part of me says to go with Carolina.  They just beat the Texans, Newton's played well all year for the most part and Tampa Bay is on the bad side of erratic most of the time.  Yet, another one of those gut calls here.  I think Blount, Freeman and one of the Buccaneer Receivers have a big game.  TB 28 Carolina 21


New York Giants @ New York Jets

This is another one of those who knows type of games.  Will Eli play amazing like he had been doing most of the year, or will he play terrible as he did last week against the Redskins?  Will Sanchez play well or poorly?  These questions will determine the winner here.  I have more faith in Eli, so I'll take the Giants here.  NYG 30 NYJ 27


Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans

I don't think the Jags are good enough to win here.  Although Tennessee is up and down I think they'll have enough in them to get by Jacksonville at home.  Titans 21 Jaguars 14


San Diego Chargers @ Detroit Lions

Should be a shoot-out and if this game were played in San Diego I'd pick them.  But the game's in Detroit, therefore I'll take the Lions here at home.  Detroit 35 SD 31


Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys

The Eagles have been playing better lately and the Cowboys have been playing well, especially their QB Romo.  That will be the difference in another high scoring affair.  Dallas 31 Philadelphia 30


San Francisco 49'ers @ Seattle Seahawks

The hawks are tough at home, but their bread and butter has been the running game with Marshawn Lynch and that's running straight at SF's strength.  A FG game with SF winning.  SF 18 Seattle 12


Sunday Night Football


Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers

I really don't think Chicago stands a chance here.  Although, if SF loses and everything is wrapped up for the Packers, we could see Matt Flynn and that, while he's not bad, could spin this game in Chicago's favor.  That said I don't see the niners losing and I still think we might see Flynn here, but in blow-out duty.  GB 42 Chicago 6


Monday Night Football


Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints

Should be another quality MNF game, two in a row, I can't believe it.  I look for a high scoring game here.  And I really can see either team pulling this one out, but I'll stick with Brees and the home Saints to win a close but high scoring game.  NO 42 Atlanta 38

Hope everyone has a Merry Christmas and a great weekend of Football.

Thursday, December 15, 2011

Fantasy Football League Playoffs Round 2

We had two pretty exciting games last week.  I split the two bringing me up to 49-29-2 for the season.  

Thug Life seemed to have the contest in hand, then 2:08 was on the clock in Chicago and Tebow Time took over and with that a flurry of points saw Mission:Repeat have a 31 point lead heading into MNF.  Thug Life's last chance rested on Brandon Lloyd having a monster game.  That did not happen and so Thug Life goes home while M:R heads into Repeal Obama's House to take on the number 2 seed.

Things looked mighty cozy for 6 Wide Sunday night.  They had a 36 point lead over Manning Vs. Food, due in part to a key injury to Greg Jennings and a surprising resting of Ahmad Bradshaw.  But they had a 36 point lead and MVF had Beast Mode and Doug Baldwin going.  6 Wide was done.  Things looked great for 6 Wide until Beast Mode took control of the game.  Couple that with a few key plays by Baldwin the come from behind looked like it could be possible.  With 2:44 on the clock, 6 Wide's lead had dwindled to 3 points, St. Louis was facing a 4th and 7.  MVF must have been licking his chops, as he had to know with a bit over 2 minutes left the Hawk's would just kneel down, they'd go beast mode and a 30 + yard rush was very possible the way he'd been running in the second half.  MVF was dreaming of Skittles.  Yet the Rams converted the 4th down and ate up almost all of the remaining clock, leaving a kneel down to end the game and the hopes of MVF.  Meanwhile 6 Wide lives to play another week.  He'll be taking on Blood & Thunder who finished with the 1 seed on an improbably filled 11-2 record.

How the two games break down:

QB'S

B&T-     Matt Stafford Vs. Oakland and Freeman Vs. Dallas
6 Wide- Romo Vs. Tampa and Grossman Vs. Giants

Projected Points: B & T 20  6W 27

WR's

B&T-     Austin Vs. Tampa, AJ Green Vs. St. Louis and Stevie Johnson Vs. Miami

6 Wide- Bowe Vs. GB, Marhall Vs. Buffalo and Torrey Smith Vs. SD

Projected Points:  B&T 30  6W 35

RB's 

B&T-    MJD Vs Atlanta and Foster Vs. Carolina

6 Wide- Shonn Greene Vs. Philly, Chris Johnson Vs. Indy

Projected Points:  B & T 36  6W- 30

TE's

B&T-     Jimmy Graham Vs. Minnesota
6 Wide- Jermichael Finley Vs. KC

Projected Points:  B&T 13  6W 13

Flex Plays

B&T-   Mike Williams(TB) Vs. Dallas and Reggie Bush Vs. Buffalo

6 Wide- Mario Manningham Vs. Washington and Mike Bush Vs. Det

Projected Points:  B&T 22  6W 19

K

B&T-    David Akers Vs. Pittsburgh
6 Wide-Matt Bryant Vs. Jacksonville

Projected Points B&T 11  6W 10

DEFENSE

B&T-     Cincinatti Vs. St. Louis
6 Wide- Pittsburgh Vs. SF

Projected Points: B&T 14  6W 12

Total Projection:  B&T  146  6 Wide 146

Wow, I knew this one was going to be close, but this is nuts.  So I guess, seeing I've picked against B & T all year long so far I'll keep going with that and go with 6 Wide 147 Blood & Thunder 146


In the Second Game we Have Mission:Repeat Vs. Repeal Obama:

QB's

RO  Ryan Vs. Jacksonville and Rivers Vs. Baltimore
MR  Rodgers Vs. KC and Tebow Vs. NE

Projected Points:  RO 31  MR 37

WR's

RO  Calvin Vs. Oak, Roddy Vs. Jax and Wallace Vs. SF
MR  A. Brown Vs. SF, Crabtree Vs. Pitt and Decker Vs. NE

Projected Points:  RO 45  MR 23

RB's

RO Blount Vs. Dallas and Kevin Smith Vs. Oakland
MR Ryan Grant Vs. KC and Ray Rice Vs. SD

Projected Points:  RO 17  MR 31

TE

RO  Brent Celek Vs. NYJ
MR  Owen Daniels Vs. Indianapolis

Projected Points:  RO 7  MR 9

Flex Plays

RO  Jordy Nelson Vs. KC and Santana Moss Vs. NYG
MR  Nate Washington Vs. Indianapolis and Willis McGahee Vs. NE

Projected Points:  RO 20  MR 22

K

RO  John Kasay Vs Minnesota
MR  Rob Bironas Vs. Indianapolis

Projected Points:  RO 8  MR 6

DEFENSE

RO    SF Vs. Pitt
MR    AZ Vs. Cle

Projected Points:  RO 11  MR 7

Total Projections:  RO 139  MR 135

Actually, to be honest, I didn't think it would be this close.  But doing the player by player breakdowns, while adding variables into the mix it changes perspectives a bit.  Can I see Mission Repeat winning, absolutely, but I think the odds are a but stacked up in RO's favor with those deadly 5 receiver package he's rolling out there.

This final four has a few interesting story lines though.

1.  Mission:Repeat is trying to follow up a championship with a championship, which would be the first to happen since the days of the Flying Apes dynasty which seems like ages ago now.

2.  Repeal Obama is trying to get a playoff win and carry his Fantasy Baseball prowess over into the realm of Fantasy Football.

3.  6 Wide is looking for his second title in 4 years.

4.  B & T is looking to return to his 4th straight Super Bowl.

Needless to say, I think it's safe to say, that the winner of the RO/MR contest is pulling for B & T to win his match this weekend over 6 Wide.  Why you ask?  Because he's 0-3 in Super Bowl appearances.

Only time will tell but it does appear it will be RO vs 6 Wide next week battling it out for the title. 

One final bit of predicting here.  If Mission:Repeat wins this week HE WILL, win the super bowl.  As his Denver Bronco contingency, even after dumping the defense, is playing the Bills.  Just some thoughts to chew on.

To those still in this thing Good Luck and to those out of it, enjoy the ride.







NFL Game Predictions Week 15

I had a pretty good week picking the games last week.  I went 13-3 and easily could have gone 12-2, as I flip flopped on the Houston-Cincinnati game for some time before picking the Bengals.  This week brings my record for the season up to 139-69, not bad but still have a few more weeks ahead of me.

I missed the Houston, Philadelphia and Arizona wins last week for those of you keeping score at home.

Onto the Week 15 Games

Thursday Night Football


Jacksonville Jaguars @ Atlanta Falcons

Were the 41 points Jacksonville scored last week a fluke or something Jaguar fans can look forward to in the upcoming seasons.  I think it was more of a product of Tampa playing that poorly and finally seeing MJD used in the passing attack more.  The Jags could be a tricky play here but I'll stick to the home Falcons here.  Atlanta 24  Jacksonville 20


Saturday Night Football


Dallas Cowboys @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This week we get a special Saturday night edition of football.  It pits the hot/cold Cowboys against the lately lifeless Buccaneers.  Well I really can't formulate a scenario for Tampa Pulling this one out.  I think Dallas will score at will here.  Dallas 35  Tampa 17


Sunday Games


Cincinnati Bengals @ St. Louis Rams

The Rams are awful.  The Bengals have a good defense and a highlight reel receiver.  Not to mention Benson ran well against the Ravens a few weeks ago, and everyone's been running well vs. the Rams.  It shouldn't matter where this game is played.  If I were in the Rams PR department I'd be trying to get the Cards to return for this game as well, perhaps their only chance.  Cincinnati 21  St. Louis 6


Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills

The only real storylines in this gamer are the recent firing of Miami's HC and the possibility of ex-Bill JP Losman running the offense for the fins.  The Bills are in disarray and I just can't pick em, especially after getting annihilated against them earlier this year.  Miami 21  Buffalo 13


Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts

Will this be the week.  No.  Tennessee 28  Indianapolis 10


Washington Redskins @ New York Giants

The Skins have been playing better as of late and Grossman's been kind of good to boot.  But the Giants can score more and therefore they'll win easy.  Giants 34  Skins 20


New Orleans Saints @ Minnesota Vikings

Saint easily. NO 38  Minnesota 13


Green Bay Packers @ Kansas City Chiefs

Packers are the Packers.  KC is well under new management.  Romeo takes the HC role and I believe we'll see Orton under center.  This one will not be close, even without Jennings for GB.  GB 45 KC 20


Carolina Panthers @ Houston Texans

Carolina has their hands filled with that Texans Defense.  Newton is fun to watch, but so is Arian Foster.  Could actually be a pretty good game. Probably the 1:00pm game I'll be watching.  Houston 24 Carolina 17


Seattle Seahawks @ Chicago Bears

Hanie vs a tough Seahawk defense.  Beast Mode Prevails. Seattle 23 Chicago 10


Detroit Lions @ Oakland Raiders

Raiders are slipping and the Lions should keep them in slip mode.  Look for a concerted effort to get Megatron the ball in this one as he's been pretty invisible the past few weeks.  Detroit 31 Oakland 21


NY Jets @ Philadelphia Eagles

If the Eagles show up this game could go either way, however they've only done that a couple times this year.  The Jets are not an offensive powerhouse by any stretch of the imagination either though, so this could be a game.  That said I'll take the jets.  NY 27  Philadelphia 20


Cleveland Browns @ Arizona Cardinals

This is the stinker game most won't see.  Arizona 16 Cleveland 6


New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos

Will Tebow Time Strike again.  It would be nice to see, but I just don't see them being in position to win this one late.  NE 28  Denver 13


Sunday Night Football


Baltimore Ravens @ San Diego Chargers

Could be a good game to watch.  The Chargers are awesome in December and the Ravens can be had if the stars align for the bolt.  I like this as a game to watch and I'm hoping it isn't decided until late in the 4th.  I want the Chargers to win but I think the Ravens will come out on top.  Baltimore 35 San Diego 31


Monday Night Football


Pittsburgh Steelers @ San Francisco 49'ers

Finally a game worth watching on MNF.  If Big Ben plays, which I think he will, it should be a great game to watch and see how Bruce Arians attacks the SF linebackers and secondary.  I have to believe they won't run all that much and Patrick Willis sounds like he's back this week, which is all the more reason to stay away from the ground.  The niners aren't very good offensively yet, but can get into field goal range almost consistently.  I think the difference between getting FG's over TD's will bite them as it did last week.  Pittsburgh 26 SF 22

Enjoy the week of Football.

Wednesday, December 7, 2011

Fantasy Football League Playoffs-Round 1

Well the regular season is over with.  During that span I picked 48 of the 78 games correctly.  I actually had some bad math along the way, so for those following along I apologize for that, seems I didn't add up the losses correctly.  So with a 4-2 mark last week I went 48-28-2 for the season.  But there is still 5 meaningful games remaining, giving me a pretty good shot at the 50 correct picks I was shooting for at the start of this thing.

I'm not going to talk about the individual losses this week.  This is all about playoffs from this point forward.  But I would like to say that I think it was great how close it was and there can be a number of factors involved as to why, but the moving up of the trade deadline I think was the most glaring reason why.  Why?  Simply because some teams assess their teams as being out of it and trade away all their talent, which we still saw this year but not nearly to the degree we normally see.  This then almost forced a few teams who could have thought they didn't have a chance into a do or die position and it just made for better games as the season unfolded.

The Final Standings for the regular Season:

1.   Blood & Thunder      11-2
2.   Repeal Obama         10-3
3.   Mission: Repeat         9-4
4.   6Wide                    7-5-1
5.   Manning Vs. Food       7-6
6.   Thug Life                    7-6
7.   Clean Slate                7-6
8.   Cinderella Story         6-7
9.   F&*& Philly                 5-8
10. Iron Pigs                  4-8-1  
11. DreamKiller             2-9-2
12. 7 QB's Deep             1-12

The Playoffs are the first six teams listed with the first and second seeds receiving byes this week.  They'll both be in action next week facing the winners of the 3-6 and 4-5 match ups.

On to this weeks playoff match ups

3. Mission: Repeat Vs. 6. Thug Life

QB

M:R rolls out Aaron Rodgers and Tim Tebow
Thug does the same with Big Ben and Matt Hasselback

Projected Points:  M:R 37  Thug 24

WR

M:R- Antonio Brown, Crabtree and Decker
Thug- Lloyd, Maclin and Boldin

Projected Points: M:R 20  Thug 30

RB

M:R- Ray Rice and Hillis
Thug-LeSean McCoy and Turner

Projected Points: M:R 29  Thug 33

TE

M:R uses Owen Daniels
Thug uses Vernon Davis

Projected Points: M:R 4  Thug 7

W/T

M:R uses Golden Tate
Thug uses Santonio Holmes

Projected Points M:R 4  Thug 8

W/R

M:R uses Willis McGahee
Thug uses Cedric Benson

Projected Points: M:R 11  Thug 10

K

M:R- Cundiff Vs. Indianapolis
Thug Gould  Vs.  Denver

Projected Points M:R 9  Thug 9

DEFENSE

M:R uses Denver (go figure) Vs. Chi
Thug uses San Diego (Could be smart or could backfire) Vs Buf

Projected Points M:R 17  Thug 11

Add it all up and you get Mission: Repeat  131  Thug Life 132  Wow, can't believe that came out so close actually.

But this is a really close game.  I think the key match-ups to consider are how those defenses fair and if M:R's flyers at WR can produce, can't really like a Decker, Tate, Crabtree, Brown package but hey, sometimes it's those types of players that drive the stake in.  Believe me I know.  So, I'll go with the numbers and Pick Thug Life here.

Then due to Thug Life's 6th seeding he'd face off against Blood & Thunder next weekend.

Which means Repeal Obama would get the winner of the other matchup

4. 6 Wide Vs. 5. Manning Vs. Food

QB's

6W- Romo and Kolb
MVF- Manning and Brees

Projected Points: 6W 18  MVF 38

WR's

6W- Bowe ( On Revis Island), Marshall (vs. Nmandi) & Torrey Smith
MVF- Garcon, and the GB duo of James Jones & Greg Jennings

Projected Points:  6W 17 MVF 16

RB's

6W- Shonne Greene & Chris Johnson
MVF- Lynch & Helu

Projected Points: 6W 35 MVF 24

TE

6W- Finley
MVF- Tony G.

Projected Points: 6W 8  MVF 8

W/T

6W- Malcolm Floyd
MVF- Scott Chandler

Projected Points: 6W- 4 MVF 4

W/R

6W- Michael Bush
MVF- Doug Baldwin*

I'm assuming that MVF will play Bradshaw over Baldwin or Switch up Baldwin and Chandler, but prediction here is how lineup currently is set.

Projected Points: 6W 18  MVF 3

K

6W Bryant Vs. Carolina
MVF Rackers Vs. Cinci

Projected Points 6W 7  MVF 11

DEFENSE

6W Pittsburgh Vs. Cleveland
MVF Chicago Vs. Denver

Projected Points: 6W 14  MVF 9

After adding each teams score I get: 6 Wide with 121 and MVF with 113

Sounds about right actually, meshes up with my initial eye test as 6 Wide has some nice matchups with Torrey Smith going against the Colts and Chris Johnson Vs. the Saints, but Mike Bush is the X-Factor here, if GB gets up big early it could severely deflate his value as Oakland will pass when behind.  That said Mike Bush is a must start.

As far as MVF goes, you can't like Garcon, Baldwin, Chandler in your lineup, but heck the team scores megaloads of points even without his lethal early season RB duo.  If you can shut his QB's down you have a great chance.  While Lynch has been hot, and has a great matchup again this week, Helu is a victim of Shannahanigans and could get 20 points or 0 depending on how things role, yet still he has to be in the lineup.  As mentioned I'm assuming Bradshaw will be in there which should make the MNF game for Lynch meaningful.  but still, I think 6 Wide takes this one.

Leaving us with:

B & T vs. Thug Life

RO Vs. 6Wide

Probably the four teams that should be fighting for a Super Bowl Berth, but as with any other week in Fantasy anything can happen.

Enjoy the week and Good luck to those 4 teams listed above.

NFL Week 14 Game Predictions

I had a terrible week picking last week.  I went 9-7, just barely above .500, bringing my season record up to 126-66, and this poor week, coupled with the past 3 so-so weeks, is going to make it very difficult for me to reach the .750 season winning percentage.  But I shall continue on.

With 7 losses I'm not going to go over them, except I was very surprised with the Seattle, Miami, KC and Arizona wins, didn't see them coming from any direction.

Week 14


Thursday Night Football


Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers

The Browns have been terrible and the Steelers have been gaining steam.  With what they did to a pretty good Bengals defense last week I don't see any hope for the Browns in Pitt.  Pittsburgh 35 Cleveland 6


Sunday Games


New England Patriots @ Washington Redskins

The Skins have been playing tight ball games lately, losing in OT to Dallas and being in good position in the 4th quarter last week against the Jets.  And while the Patriot defense is anything but good, I can't see Washington winning against the Patriots.  NE 38  Washington 24


Kansas City Chiefs @ New York Jets

The Chiefs have been the epitome of erratic this year.  They started off miserably, turned it around then nosedived again.  Then last weekend they manhandled a banged up bears team.  Well, defensively they did, as they still only managed 10 points though.  Pair this with the Jets living and dying on Sanchez's up and down games this has the makings of an anyone's guess type of game.  But I'll go with the Jets, as they are the better team on paper.  NYJ 14  KC 6


Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals

This will be one of my upset picks.  I like Dalton and the rookie AJ Green and for the most part of the season their defense has been really good.  Houston will be running TJ Yates out their once more and looks as if Andre Johnson won't be a go after just getting back in there last week.  Houston will probably still pull this one out, but I'm going to take the Bengals at home.  Cincinnati 31  Houston 28


Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens

I'm not even going to consider the 24 point rally the Colts had at the end of the game last week.  This teams going 0-16.  Baltimore wins easily.  Baltimore 27  Indianapolis 13


Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers

Could be a close game, but then again it could be a blowout out for either team.  Atlanta is the more polished team and despite being on the road I see Turner running well which should be enough to take down the Panthers.  Atlanta 30 Carolina 24


Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Nobody will be watching this game.  Who knows who will be playing QB for Tampa and the Jaguar defense is pretty good.  I'm taking the home team.  Jacksonville 17 Tampa 14


Philadelphia Eagles @ Miami Dolphins

The dream team have quit on their coach and the Dolphins defense has not for theirs.  Miami 21 Philadelphia 13




New Orleans Saints @ Tennessee Titans


Drew Brees and company are firing on all cylinders right now.  Chris Johnson seems to have gotten things right.  So this could be a good game to watch, however I don't see the Titans pulling out the win, even at home.  NO 24 Tennessee 19


Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions

No A.P. again this week and Ponder is nicked up, Joe Webb might get the nod for the Vikings here.  Barring any more inane meltdowns by the Lions they should take this game quite easily.  Detroit 35 Minnesota 10


San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals

This defense even without Willis is the best in the league.  Harbaugh is coach of the year and Akers is all the offense the niners need.  Kolb will not be enough for Arizona.  SF 19 Arizona 9


Chicago Bears @ Denver Broncos

Tebow Time vs Backup time.  Denver 20 Chicago 3


Oakland Raiders @ Green Bay Packers

The Raiders won't beat the Packers in GB.  Not going to happen.  There could be some points put up here but in the end the record will remain unblemished as the Packers keep rolling.  GB 38 Oakland 24


Buffalo Bills @ San Diego Chargers

The Bills could win this game but they won't.  They've been decimated by injuries and aren't playing well.  The Chargers, while have a dead man walking for HC, they just don't lose very many games in December.  SD 42 Buffalo 24


Sunday Night Football


New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys

Jason Garrett could get fired if they don't take this division.  It's a division that is there for the taking.  The Giants are on a slide and the Cowboys are not playing up to potential.  That all said I see a ton of points and Big Blue leaving Big D with a win.  NYG 34  Dallas 31


Monday Night Football


St. Louis Rams @ Seattle Seahawks

How MNF gets stuck with these terrible games is beyond me, but they do.  Seattle at home against a bad Rams team that might be starting their 3rd string QB, whoever that is.  Seattle 30 STL 7

Have a great week of Football

Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Fantasy Football League Week 13

Well I think I'm just going to forget about last weeks picks.  I went 2-4 which is easily my worst week of picking for the year.  My yearly record is still pretty good at 43-18-2 but I was hoping to hit 50 wins, which was a secret goal of mine this year.  Well, looks like I'll have to extend the tally into the playoffs now if I even have a chance at that mark.

Anyhow, I'm not going to recap specifically the 4 losses.  I will however make mention that I was shocked at the 165 Clean Slate dropped on Cinderella Story.  I saw the score before the Patriot game and thought the mockery would continue, where Cinderella laces up old Donavan McNabb with starting QB's sitting on the waiver wire.  But despite the amazing game NE-PHI was for Cinderella, the glass slipper is lost and will not be found again this year.  Clean Slate is alive in the playoff picture, which is:

1.  Blood and Thunder secured a first found playoff bye with his win over DreamKiller.  He keeps the #1 seed with a win or a Repeal Obama loss.  If he loses and RO wins then it'll come down to the tiebreaker, which RO will need to make up the 37 points separating the two teams.

2.  Repeal Obama's win makes him, in all likelihood, a lock for a first round bye.  I already mentioned how he can secure the #1 seed above, but he can lose the bye as well.  If he happens to lose and Mission:Repeat wins and wins by more than 42 points than RO scores he'll lock up the bye.  While not likely we've seen many routs this year, so who knows.

3.  Mission:Repeat keeps the #3 seed and has the previously mentioned shot at a bye with a win.  If he loses then playoff positioning depends on a number of things.  First, if 6Wide wins he'll get #3 seed and then M:R would either get #4 or #5 seed, depending on Thug Life.  If Thug wins then it'll come down to pts scored, which at present M:R only has a 1pt lead over Thug.

4.  6Wide  Locks up the #4 seed with a win and as mentioned can still move back into the #3 seed.  If 6 Wide Loses he can move down depending on Thug Life winning.  Actually he can slide all the way to the #6 seed if he loses and both Thug Life and Clean Slate win.

5.  Thug Life.  He's sitting here at the #5 seed and can finish at a number of seed positions.  As mentioned he can move into the #3 or #4 seeds but he can also be eliminated as well. If thug life loses to Manning Vs. Food he then needs a Clean Slate loss or he's eliminated.

6. Clean Slate.  He's in if he wins.  If he loses he needs some help from Thug Life.  The only way he makes it in with a loss is if Thug beat MVF, in which case would clinch Clean Slate in the #6 Seed.

Manning Vs. Food will make the playoffs with a win against Thug Life.  It is the old Win and In scenario and playoff game #2.  Last week was his first playoff match that he happened to beat the F Philly squad, sending them packing.  He cannot make the playoffs with a loss, but a win, coupled with a Clean Slate loss would give him the #5 seed and then allowing #6 to be filled by Thug Life, who would literally back into the playoffs if this scenario occurs, which I think it will.

Cinderella Story, Dream Killer, Iron Pigs and 7 QB's deep don't even have the spoiler play to look forward to, as Cinderella plays DK and IP plays 7QB's in what amounts to playing for pride and pride alone.

F Philly though, while out of the playoff mix can affect the playoffs with a win over Mission:Repeat, so his game this week at least offers him a but of that spoiler play.

As for this weeks games themselves:


Cinderella Story Vs. Dream Killer

Dream killer is on fumes and I think McNabb will outscore some of his players this week.  Now that Vick is officially eliminated he'll have to go with Palko, which isn't very pretty against Chicago, that is, if Orton doesn't get the nod.  Cinderella 95 DK 50


Iron Pigs Vs. 7 QB's Deep

Not much to say about his one.  It looks like the Pigs have headed to the pen as he started Jay Cutler last week despite Caleb Hanie, the new starter being on the WW.  So I'll pick the 7's here.  7QB's Deep 111- Iron Pigs 94


F Philly @ Mission:Repeat

McGahee and Rice may be the keys to this game for M:R.  If these guys come up small I think F Philly takes the pleasure in spoiling M:R's aspirations of a high seeding.  But I think both those backs will do fine and see this one as.  M:R 106 F Philly 103


Repeal Obama Vs. Clean Slate

The real Cinderella Story this year has been Clean Slate, just trying to get over the AP loss.  That one injury really hurt his team as bad as any could hurt a team.  He was there, in position to beat B & T when the injury took place two weeks ago.  So now he's just clinging onto life support, heading into a game where his opponent has some of the types of match-ups you hope to have in the playoffs.  Victor Cruz has been going nuts, and I can't see how he doesn't do the same this week, but if AP doesn't go, well I can't see a possibility he scores more points than RO's top 6, not to mention he has Jordy Nelson and Laurent Robinson in his flex spots.  RO 128 Clean Slate 100

6Wide Vs. Blood & Thunder

A really good match up on paper.  Some high quality in-game matches for both teams.  This one will surely come down to the MNF game where I see B & T needing about 24 points from MJD in that one, not impossible but to be realistic, it's a pretty lofty score to need here.  6Wide 132 B& T 129

Thug Life Vs. Manning Vs. Food

This is the main event.  As big a week 13 game as you can get.  For this reason I'd like to go through each of these teams rosters:

AT QB:

Thug life goes with Big Ben @home for Cincinnati & VY @ Seattle  Potential points 30

MVF goes with ELI @ home for GB and Drew Brees @ home for Detroit. Potential Points 40


AT WR:

Thug life goes with Lloyd vs. SF, Boldin vs. Cleveland and Holmes Vs. Washington.  Potential Points 30

MVF goes with Simpson vs. Pitt, Garcon Vs. NE and Meachem Vs. Detroit.  Potential Points 15


AT RB:

Thug Life goes with a very questionable LeSean McCoy Vs. a very difficult Seattle run defense and Michael Turner vs. a pretty solid Texans defense.  Potential Points 36

MVF goes with Marshawn Lynch vs. a Philly run defense that gives up RB points to RB1's and Johnny White vs. Titans.  Possible Points 17


At TE:

Thug Life goes with Vernon Davis vs. STL  Possible Points 13

MVF goes with Tony Gonzalez vs. Houston Possible Points 13

AT FLEX SPOTS:

Thug Life goes with W/T Denarius Moore vs. Miami, who is not listed here as questionable but I have heard from good sources that his being inactive is a possibility as of 3 hours ago.  W/R Cedric Benson vs Pitt.  Potential Points 16

MVF goes with W/T Scott Chandler vs. Tennessee and W/R Greg Jennings Vs. NYG's suspect secondary in what should be a high scoring game.  Potential Points 26


AT K and DEF:

Thug Life goes with Gould vs. KC and Giants Defense Vs. GB  Possible Total Points 4

MVF goes with Rackers vs. Atlanta and Bears Defense Vs. KC  Possible Points 20.

According to this outlook, which I'm sure will change by Sunday:

Thug Life 129


MVF 131


A couple points of advice if either team chooses to listen.  Thug Life, if I were you I'd pay the closest of attention on McCoy's status leading up to tomorrow nights game.  If he can't go, you need to have a capable backup ready to fill in. Also keep an eye on Moore, as I mentioned there are reports out there that his status is in jeopardy for Sunday.  I would probably play Hasselback vs. Buffalo if he's healthy, but then again I'm a jaded Bills fan who thinks our secondary is the worst on the planet.  I would also go get a different defense, it'll be -4 if you stick with it, which, if my outline goes right, would cost you the game.

MVF.  You can't roll with Simpson, Chandler, White, Meachem and Garcon.  I know looking at your recent transactions you don't intend to, but yeah, white can't be used, I do like the Helu and Jones pick ups as they are much better than any of your other options.  I'd scour the waiver wire for other options as well, there has to be better options out there.  I love Chandler, but he's risky, either boom or bust, but that said I might use him just the same, been missing a TE in our offense for so long, he was one of the highlights this year. Take the recommendations with a grain of salt, if you use them and you lose, just ask RO, I will not be responsible or take the blame-lol

Anyhow, I find this match-up the most intriguing, not just because it's a win and in type of game, but the fact the MVF was on fire early, loses his best 2 players and is still in this thing, pretty impressive.  Thug Life has had a great team on paper all year but as many of us know from our own rosters, variables and underperformance just sucks.

So, I think the Playoffs will shake out like this:

1. Blood & Thunder
2. Repeal Obama


3. Mission: Repeat vs. 6. Thug Life
4. 6-Wide Vs. 5. Manning Vs. Food

Enjoy the week of football

NFL Week 13 Game Predictions

With each week I continually am reminded how close the teams in the NFL are matched.  This makes picking accurately rather difficult.  I did go 11-5, including the exact score in the Viking-Falcon game last week which is pretty good about 80%, which of course improved my yearly pick record, advancing it to 117-59, which I thought brought me back up and over the .750 marker.  Yet I just realized that my math was off and I'm still a few good weeks away.  Anyhow, the five losses last week:

I was probably one of the only people insane enough to actually believe that Detroit would beat the undefeated Packers, but I made that call and the loss was all but sealed when Suh got himself ejected.

Arizona-St.Louis was one of those toss up, close type of games.  Really thought the Rams would pull it off, but Beanie Wells' 228 rushing performance and Pat Peterson's RTD sealed this one for the Cards.

Titans-Buccaneers game kind of hit me sideways.  I really thought Freeman would build off the game he had in GB the week before, but nope, didn't happen, instead Chris Johnson had his second quality game in 3 weeks.

Washington-Seattle, well I don't believe in the Skins and I thought Seattle was showing signs of life with Lynch running hard, and they had a strong Defense, or so I thought.

I have to hand it for 15, he's getting it done, and reminding me why I never missed a Gators game while he was under center.  Pretty surprised this Read Option Offense was able to outscore the Chargers.  I know they are having their issues, but Von Miller for DROY anyone?

Onto Week 13:

Thursday Night Football

Philadelphia Eagles @ Seattle Seahawks

The Eagles will be without Mike Vick again this week as the short week didn't offer enough reps in practice.  So VY will take the reigns again and he did actually look decent and then really good at times last week.  Who knows what to think about Seattle.  I can see them shutting the doors on the Eagles in this one at home, but I also can see Philly running amok.  Eagles 30  Seahawks 20

Sunday Games

New York Jets @ Washington Redskins

I know the Jets pulled off a big win last week, but Sanchez was awful.  And I say this despite his 4 TD's.  He was the sole reason the Bills were even in a position to pull this one out.  That said I'm not buying into anything being sold from Washington these days, especially when it comes to their football squad.  Jets 21  Redskins 14

Kansas City Chiefs @ Chicago Bears

Palko or Orton vs. Hanie.  NOT a pretty offensive matchup, and that's being kind.  We know Chicago's defense has been pretty solid to elite all year and KC has also shown flashes of having a very good defense as well, most recently last week limiting the Steelers to 13 points.  So I look for the team with the best Defense to win here, and at the moment I think this belongs to Chicago. Bears 13 Chiefs 9

Tennessee Titans @ Buffalo Bills

If Sunday is anything like today there could be some snow for the game, which really helps the Titans here.  The Bills are decimated on both sides of the ball with Injuries.  Yet, that said, they played a pretty good Jets Defense last week and looked good doing their thing.  They've been strong in all but one of their home games this year, and despite a blackout looming locally I think they'll perform valiantly at home again.  Bills 31 Titans 28 on a last second or OT FG

Oakland Raiders @ Miami Dolphins

The Miami feel good story came to an end in the last seconds of their Thanksgiving Day game against Dallas.  While I don't think Oakland is Dallas, I do think they are much better than those teams the Dolphins beat the several weeks prior to last Thursday.  Raiders 20 Dolphins 7

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers

This was a close game earlier in the year.  This was the game that Cincinnati came out on fire, a fire that would die down just as quickly when AJ Green went down on his TD catch.  Yet the game stayed pretty close.  Without Joseph at CB though I think Big Ben should attack the Bengal secondary and have a big game here, giving the Steelers another victory.  Steelers 24 Bengals 14

Atlanta Falcons @ Houston Texans

I want to pick the Texans here, as they've been playing inspired defense and dishing out an amazing running game each week.  These things should continue, but they always had a few plays each game where Schaub would sling the rock, moving the chains and adding that extra dimension.  They seemed confident last week when Matt Leinart got the gig but he went down too, so now, TJ Yates, a rookie, will take the reins.  I think this glaring weakness will be enough for the Texans to fall to the up-and-coming Falcons.  Falcons 24 Texans 21

Denver Broncos @ Minnesota Vikings

AP or no AP.  It doesn't seem to matter, seeing Denver has 15 lining up for them.  Denver wins another ugly yet effective one.  Broncos 23 Minnesota 17

Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I think this will be a game that Tampa offers a heavy dose of LeGarrette Blount.  Hopefully they'll get some effective passing from Freeman.  Newton's been a bit down lately in his performance, but he's got all the talent in the world and an elite WR in Smith, so this one is really arguable in either case.  Buccaneers 28 Panthers 27

Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots

Only five more games Colts fans.  Patriots 42  Colts 13

Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns

I know Colt McCoy had a pretty good game last week but he really doesn't have any wideouts to speak of, and that is what you need to beat the Ravens.  Ravens 24 Browns 10

Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants

Will the Packers go undefeated?  That's the big question going around these days and rightfully so.  They look unbeatable and while the Giants haven't been playing quality ball since they took it to the Patriots in Foxboro, Eli Manning and Victor Cruz have shown they can put the points up each week.  GB's defense has been giving points up in large chunks as well.  So this game will be as simple as this, Can the giants keep up offensively with the packers.  I don't really see this as anything but fantasy.  Packers 42 Giants 34

Dallas Cowboys @ Arizona Cardinals

Sure the Cards look to be getting Kevin Kolb back but I can't pick them.  Beanie won't run wild against the boys and I think the Romo-led passing attack will do just that against the terrible Arizona defense.  Cowboys 35  Cardinals 14

St. Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers

I can't see the rams doing it this week, not after they couldn't get it done twice against the Cards.  49ers 17 Rams 6

SNF

Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints

Should be another fun game to watch.  Should see a lot of points scored here.  I just see the home field advantage to be the differences maker in this one.  Saints 45 Detroit 34

MNF

San Diego Chargers @ Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars just fired their coach.  They just sold their team, which seems to be staying put, and they just are horrible offensively.  They do have an above average defense and Rivers and company have struggled.  They did beat the Ravens though.  As much as I try I just can't picture MJD getting 50 carries here, which is what I think it'll take to win on MNF.  Chargers 27 Jaguars 20

Enjoy a great week of football.

  

Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Fantasy Football League Week 12 Game Predictions

Week 11 solved a lot of questions and opened the door for a whole bunch more.  The final two weeks of the Fantasy regular season should be very interested as nine teams out of 12 are in this thing still.

I went 4-2 yet again last week, bringing my season record up to 41-14-2.

Going to do the post a bit different this week, so bear with me.

After Week 11 victories, Blood & Thunder, Repeal Obama and 6 Wide have clinched playoff berths.  Mission:Repeat is a virtual lock to make the playoffs, yet there is a scenario, albeit unlikely, where they fail to get their dancing card.

So we have four teams, for the most part, in already.  This leaves two spots up for grabs.  Thug Life looks like they'll make it in based on opponents and match-ups, but that said, things will get really dicy for them if they fail to produce a W this weekend.  But I'm going to include them as the fifth team, which leaves but 1 space open.

F Philly, Manning Vs Food, Cinderella Story and the current 6th seed, Clean Slate are all fighting for the final playoff slot.  And It will come down to Week 13 to settle all the dust here.

A brief rundown of events to come:

Blood & Thunder needs 1 win, either this week against DreamKiller or next week against 6 Wide to secure a first round bye.  He'll secure the first place seed by winning both, or winning one and a Repeal Obama loss.  If both teams finish with the same record it will come down to points scored, which currently are separated by I believe 12 points.

Repeal Obama doesn't clinch a bye with a win this week, but will make big strides towards that goal with a victory over 7 QB's Deep.  If he wins and 6 Wide loses he locks up the 1st round bye.  If not it'll come down to his week 13 match against Clean Slate.  He'll be watching the scoreboard as well, to see the B & T-6 Wide score, as any  6Wide loss in this scenario also locks him the 2 seed at least.  His possibility for the 1 seed was listed above.

6 Wide is in an odd situation having a tie in his record.  This tie can help him, which it already has, in regards to the playoff clinching, but it can work against him as he tries to move to a higher seed.  There are a few scenarios available to him, but to get into the first seed he needs 2 B & T losses because of that tie.  He can move into the second seed with two wins and two losses by Repeal Obama, or two wins and one loss by Repeal Obama, where points will then be the deciding factor, but he's currently more than 100 points behind in that respect.  Of course a couple of losses could push him down as well in the playoff seeding.  He plays Mission:Repeat this week and Blood & Thunder in Week 13.

Mission: Repeat is in with a win, on the virtue of the teams he would be battling for the playoff spot would be playing each other, thus knocking each other down.  If he wins this week, Yahoo may not recognize the clinching but he'll be in.  If he loses both games though things get dicy.  As he'll be looking at the scoreboard and hoping MVF or F Philly aren't the teams he's vying for a spot with as points could get interesting in such a case.  He plays 6 Wide this week which is a tough one for him and he finishes the season off against F Philly in Week 13.


Thug Life will get oh, so closer to locking up a spot with a win over Iron Pigs this week.  If needed he has the tough match-up against MVF in week 13.  As you can tell from these past few entries a lot will sort itself out over the next two weeks as teams fighting for playoff positioning are battling each other this year.  If Thug Life falls both weeks he'll probably be out, yet that's there's still a scenario for a berth if that happens, as if he finishes tied with Clean Slate, and the lowly points total they tote around, he'd win out in virtue of points.  But all this can be null if he takes care of business against the Iron Pigs this week.

Clean Slate, despite his current spot in 6th place, can't lose another game this year.  This is due to the teams around him and their match-ups, combined with the low point total his team has put up so far.  He's scored 1077 points while most teams are in the mid 1200's, meaning he'd have to outscore those teams by 250 points this week or next week, that is if he only won one of the next two weeks, and we know that scenario is next to impossible.  This all said though, if he wins his last two weeks, he'll be in.  It's really in his own hands.  But one loss and he's done.  He plays Cinderella Story this week and then Repeal Obama in Week 13, so his prospects don't look good.  The only thing that might save him, is a but on the collusion side, but it's still worth mentioning.  If RO locks up his bye this week, he could, and extremely unlikely for him to do this, he could punt week 13 if Clean Slate wins this week and is in the win and in scenario next week.  Will be interesting, but the fate is in Clean Slates hand.  And did I mention that he'll be without AP this week, and the Bills play the Jets.

Manning Vs. Food is in the 7th seed right now.  Barely outside looking in.  He plays F Philly this week, where the loser is out and the winner is still in contention.  MVF plays Thug Life next week so his future is clearly in his own hands.  Win both weeks and he's in.  Lose once and he's out.

F Philly is in the same boat as MVF. He must beat MVF this week and then beat Mission:Repeat next week.  One loss and they're done due to the various match-up scenarios involved here.  Although, if tied with Clean Slate for 6th seed, he'd get the nod because of points.

Cinderella Story is in 9th place right now.  It's truly remarkable that there is a scenario he makes the playoffs, as he's been starting McNabb each and every week and McNabb hasn't played in over a month.  Last week he picked up P. Manning, who probably won't play this year, when there were, albeit terrible options, starters available to pick up.  Instead he pulled this win off and is in position to at least have a shot to make the playoffs.  Obviously a loss in either week is a killshot.  He needs to beat Clean Slate this week and then Dream Killer next week.  Then he has to hope Clean Slate beats Repeal Obama in week 13 and that Thug Life loses both weeks with F Philly beating MVF this week and M:R beating F Philly in week 13.  If this perfect storm takes place, well then a Cinderella story this indeed would be.

Iron Pigs, Dreamkiller and 7 QB's Deep are obviously solely in the spoiler role right now, as each team has been eliminated for a few weeks now.


How I think this week will pan out.

Blood & Thunder Vs. Dreamkiller

I don't like B & T's team, yet they seem to win in outlandish mannerisms.  AP going down, S-Jax held to 3 pts, The Bills players Clean Slate had scoring 1 point for 3 players.  Really?  Anyhow I can't pick B & T, just can't.  DK gets his revenge.  119- 114

Repeal Obama Vs. 7 Qb's Deep


7 QB's have been competitive the past 4-5 weeks and should be again, yet RO should still this one out.  But, if Jordy Nelson and Megatron come up low tomorrow, we could have an interesting Sunday to watch. RO 122 7QB's 111


6 Wide Vs. M:R

Have to go six wide 118-117.  But, if Shonn Greene fails against the bills I can see it going to M:R.  I have Greene rocking out a cool 20 points against Buffalo this week

Clean Slate Vs. Cinderella Story

Too many injuries and guys on teams playing poorly will effectively end Clean Slates playoff aspirations and keep Cinderellas open a bit longer. Cinderella 1 105- Clean Slate 88


F Philly Vs. Manning Vs. Food

This is the match to watch this week.  Winner is in business as I see it.  any other week I'd take MVF 99 out of 100 times, but the perfect scenario befell F Philly.  He has half a roster full of Jets, that's a losing philosophy in and of itself....but not when they happen to be playing the Bills.  F Philly 120 MVF 115

Thug Life Vs. Iron Pigs

No cutler for Iron Pigs hurts their chances.  I can't see Thug Life losing here.  101-80

So you can figure out how things fit in to the above listed playoff scenarios.  Everyone have a happy Thanksgiving.  Enjoy the food and the games.



NFL Week 12 Game Predictions

Well my picking has been pretty consistent the past few weeks, just barely making it over the .500 hump.  This past weekend I went a paltry 9-5, bringing my yearly record up to 106-54, two games under the .750 mark.  The 5 games I picked incorrectly last week were, well, for the most part pretty terrible.

I took Buffalo to win 31-30 and they got drubbed all over the joint 35-8.  I took the Giants to rout the Eagles 28-6 and Philadelphia wound up winning 17-10.  I had St. Louis winning a close one over Seattle, who wound up routing them 24-7.

The other two losses were somewhat toss ups in terms of the score.  I actually watched most of these games and am still shocked the Jets lost to the Broncos last Thursday night, but it just shows that Tebow only needs 5 minutes to get the W.  Go figure.

Also the Jags looked in control of their game most of the afternoon, but because they have a pretty terrible offense they keep the other team in the game each and every week.  Pretty sad, as they do have a really good defense overall.

On to week 12:

Thursday Games


Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions

The Packers are looking unbeatable.  Their HC has virtually admitted this week that they're looking for the perfect season.  Stafford looked bad the past couple outings and the game that looked like it would be a great one was starting to look bleak.  Well, enter week 11, where Green Bay was in another close one and Detroit came back to life, as QB Matt Stafford threw for 5 TDs and recently re-acquired Kevin Smith brought a running game to the motor city.  I see an upset here.  A good game with a Stafford-Johnson TD in the final minute winning it. Detroit 35 GB 34


Miami Dolphins @ Dallas Cowboys

With Dallas you never know what you're going to get on any given week.  Two weeks ago they decimated the Bills in every fashion, last week they were taken to Overtime by the Redskins, a team that a few weeks back was shut out by that same Bills team.  Miami has strung 5 impressive games together, a streak that sees them on their current 3 game winning streak.  I think the streak ends tomorrow.  Dallas 31 Miami 20


San Francisco 49ers @ Baltimore Ravens

This is the hyped up Harbaugh Vs. Harbaugh game.  But both teams are pretty good and should be refreshing to see a decent game played on NFL network for once.  SF's defense is very strong, probably not a stretch to say league's best.  Baltimore has found their passing game in recent weeks.  I think the Ravens pull this one out at home.  A close one though.  Baltimore 20  SF 19


Sunday Games


Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets

I can't even go into details with this one.  The Bills look horrible again.  Go Bills, but I can't see this happening at all.  NYJ 28  Buffalo 10


Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals

Tough divisional match-up.  If AJ Green doesn't play it'll be closer, but I still think Cincinnati is the better team.  Cincinnati 23 Cleveland 16


Minnesota Vikings @ Atlanta Falcons

Again, I can't see the Vikings winning here.  They've definitely been more competitive since Ponder's taken over the QB position, but without AP this week I don't see it happening in Atlanta.  Atlanta 24 Minnesota 14


Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Tough divisional game for these two teams.  Jacksonville is pretty much out of this conversation but are still trying to play hard each week.  On the Houston side we see their star QB on IR today.  Matt Leinart gets the gig for the rest of the year and he also gets WR Andre Johnson back for this one.  While I don't think Leinart will light the world on fire, I do think he'll be good enough to continue what this team's been doing as of late, running extremely well and timely, efficient passing.  Houston 27 Jacksonville 14


Arizona Cardinals @ St. Louis Rams

This game went to overtime a few weeks ago, seeing Arizona getting the victory off of rookie CB Patrick Peterson's punt return TD.  I think St. Louis was the better team that day and think they'll be the better team this week as well.  Only difference being that they'll actually get the victory this time around.  St. Louis 15 Arizona 10


Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Tennessee Titans

No clue how to pick this game.  TB looks bad almost every week, yet they play great in their loss last week to undefeated GB.  Tennessee lost their QB last week, not sure if he'll play or not this week, but I'm just going to take a wild guess that TB will build off of their performance last week and get the win here.  TB 21 Tennessee 17


Carolina Panthers @ Indianapolis Colts

This was the game many had circled for Indianapolis' first win of the year.  I don't see it that way.  Newton looked like a rookie against Detroit and they just got mauled by the Lions.  I think we see a stronger overall effort, as the Colts are that bad.  Carolina 28 Indianapolis 13


Washington Redskins @ Seattle Seahawks

Washington is another one of those erratic teams that you don't know what you'll get each week.  Seattle is not very good.  If this game was played in DC I'd pick the Skins, but it's not so I'm taking Seattle in a lopsided game, as the Seahawks are pretty good when playing at home.  Seattle 24 Washington 6


Chicago Bears @ Oakland Raiders

The Bears have put together a nice streak of games together.  However, the Cutler loss is bad.  I think Hanie will be okay for them as they year continues, but Palmer is getting better each week in Oakland and they're at home.  Oakland 28 Chicago 21


New England Patriots @ Philadelphia Eagles

I really can't stand the Patriots.  But I really dislike Mike Vick.  In any case I want the Eagles to win but see the Pats winning rather easily here.  NE 35 Philadelphia 23


Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers

I think playing 5 minutes of football on a consistent basis catches up to a team, it has to right?  In any case I think the Chargers offense will force Denver to pass the ball, so we'll see.  I like the Chargers here at home.  San Diego 28 Denver 16


SNF


Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Chiefs

Blowout Pittsburgh Style.  Pittsburgh 42 KC 3


MNF


New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints

Finally a really good matchup for MNF.  I'm looking forward to this game as both offenses have shown that they can move the ball.  However both teams have shown their not immune from bouts of the fits.  I like the home Saints here in a shoot-out.  NO 38 NYG 31

So I hope everyone has a good week of watching football and also would like to wish all my readers A Happy Thanksgiving.