Thursday, October 11, 2012

2012 NFL Game predictions-Week 6

As a Bills fan I just want to redact last weekend from my mind.  But, on the prediction front, I did a nice job, going 10-4, making it two consecutive weeks picking impressively.  At 47-30, I'm making up the so-so start.  That said though, just want to take a minute or two and say wow, who would've thought Indianapolis would've pulled that one out.  The 3 other losses didn't shock me as much.  But this game, having that big lead, only to lose on the missed kick, wow, is all I can say.  If I seem shocked, well yeah, I am, out of all the games last week, this was my lock and my survivor pick.  This, the Vikings win over SF and the Cardinals victory over NE in weeks past, just go to show you, there's no such thing as a guaranteed win in the NFL, as strange things aren't just possible, they do happen, and for this season, 3 out of 5 weeks has a shocker in there, pretty high odds.  Anyhow, just something to keep in mind as things move forward.  And on that note, we'll do just that.

It's on to week 6, where New Orleans, Jacksonville, Chicago and Carolina have their byes, leaving 14 games to try and get a handle on.

I'm not making any excuses, no, I try not to do that, especially before the games are played, but this week's games, I have to say were the toughest to call so far this season.  While I have a feeling of how things should pan out, or at least how I think they will, my confidence is pretty low for a few of them, as there are an easy 4 games this week I think could realistically go either way.  So, onto the picks.

Thursday Night

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tennessee Titans

Tennessee is still without their talented 2nd year QB Jake Locker for this one.  Star WR Kenny Britt is still getting back into game shape and RB Chris Johnson has barely showed up since signing his big contract after his holdout last year.  To make matters worse, there defense has been scored upon more than any other team.  This is extremely hard to believe, that anyone could have a poorer defense than my Bills in any respect this year, but it's true, not by much, but it is in fact true.  On the other side of the ball, we have a Steeler offense that isn't quite gelling yet.  Big Ben's having some issues with his new play caller Todd Haley and the line's been struggling a bit, mainly due to injuries, but still, struggling.  They got a shot in the arm last week with RB Mendenhall's return, looking great in the process.  But going against the Titans defense shouldn't be hard.  On defense, they'll be without LB Woodley and S Polamalu, who just returned last week, only to get hurt again.  Pittsburgh should have this one.  27-13

Sunday Games

Oakland Raiders @ Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta is rolling right now and unless Oakland devised some foolproof scheme during their bye week, they'll be in trouble against Ryan and company this week.  For fantasy purposes I love the Raiders passing game though, as if Atlanta's defense does have a problem, it would have to be defending the pass, and having to play behind most of the game, I like the Raiders QB and WR's this week.  But in reality, not much of a game the way I see it.  Atlanta 34-14

Dallas Cowboys @ Baltimore Ravens

Everyone's ripping on the Cowboys right now, pointing out this flaw and that flaw, when it's really only one flaw, and unfortunately it's one I don't see them overcoming this year, the Offensive Line.  Romo's not getting much time to throw and when he does it seems like highly drafter WR Dez Bryant can't hang on to the ball.  You'd think a shaky o-line would have it easier run blocking, but their not really opening extended holes for RB Murray either.  All this said, it creates a major dosage of pressure upon the defense, one that's played pretty well so far, which is kind of as advertised before the season started.  Baltimore is winning, but their identity isn't truly known yet, one week they win it on Flacco's arm, the next off Ray Rice's legs, or then, like last week, you get the familiar Raven theme of winning off your defense.  This, inconsistency is actually good in my mind though, as each aspect of the team has proven they can do their jobs extremely well, it's just getting all facets to come together in a single game that's been the problem.  Kind of scary to think of when they actually do, seeing their winning now anyhow.  To this game, I'd love to pick the Cowboy's here, as I do think it's not a bad matchup for Romo and his WR's against the Raven secondary, but I'm just not convinced the line will give him much time to get Torrie Smith open deep, which will completely alter their ability to diversify their attack.  I'm taking the Ravens.  21-17

Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns

Funny how things work out.  I was actually planning on taking the Browns this week.  I thought they'd been playing better each week, which they have been, and with this rivalry, teams typically play each other tough, so I thought they had a real shot to pull off the upset.  But, and a big but, after their poor play and loss against Miami last weekend, I have to think they'll get their ship aright and pull this one off.  But, as has been the theme with Cleveland so far, it'll be close throughout.  Cinci's too talented offensively not to pull this out now with the added reality check they had last week.  Bengals 28-16

St. Louis Rams @ Miami Dolphins

Rams are not flashy on offense and they just lost arguably their best weapon in WR Amendola.  Their defense is playing great though.  As a result, their better than what most thought before the season started. Almost a mirror image is the Dolphins, who are getting it done by strong defense and a spattering of offense.  This is a toss up in my book, but being at home and having a few more weapons to work with on offense, I'll take the fish in an ugly one. 18-13

Indianapolis Colts @ New York Jets

Another toss up in my book.  Jets are in free-fall while the Colts are actually looking deadly offensively.  I actually have gone back and forth several times here, seeing it easily play out either way, but I'll fall back on the level of defense, which I have to give a good-sized edge to the Jets, and then being at home as well, I've settled on NY.  24-20

Detroit Lions @ Philadelphia Eagles

Third toss up in a row for me.  I'm looking at my notes right now, and it reads 23-20 Philadelphia, but I'm switching that right now, to 21-17 Lions.  The reason, I just have a hunch that this explosive offense will have corrected things during their bye week and will come out flying, while the Eagles have been pedestrian at times on offense and should be able to be beaten, despite having a very good defense.  So yeah, I'll take a shot on the Lions. 21-17

Kansas City Chiefs @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

How about a fourth toss up in a row?  Well, since you asked for it.  I have no idea, Buc's aren't looking great lately, Josh Freeman is looking awful and I'm just not scared of them.  That said, KC is forced to start Brady Quinn, which I have to start in my fantasy league btw, which is not a good thing.  I think TB should handle this one, unless of course the fantasy gods shine down on my and Quinn has a career game, which, in my opinion is highly doubtful though.  TB 31-20

Buffalo Bills @ Arizona Cardinals

Ok.  Won't spend long on this one. Arizona is 4-1, but they are down to their 3rd string RB.  Ok, but buffalo's the worst run defense in the league. Somethings gotta give.  Buffalo's defense, which was lauded before playing a snap as one of the dominant lines in football this year is embarrassing this year.  Ok. But, Arizona's offensive line is the absolute worst line in football.  Correct.  Something's gotta give.  Arizona's defense is pretty good, not great, but pretty darned good.  Buffalo's offense can be explosive, but they haven't been and their down to a 3rd string RG, not ideal.  But, perhaps it's the homer in me, perhaps it's that I just can't see this gross product acting as it has for a third consecutive week, getting shredded by William Powell and Kevin Kolb, or perhaps it's just that I think Stevie Johnson can beat Patrick Peterson, which they'll feel otherwise and won't double him, something he'll make them pay for early or, finally, perhaps it's the belief that Arizona won't be able to stop CJ Spiller in space, which I have to believe that Chan Gailey will make every attempt to bring to fruition.  Yes, I know, that's a lot of if's and beliefs but it's sitting their in my gut right now, doesn't feel great, but it's what it is.  Buffalo big 38-14

New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks

Nobody plays well against Seattle in Seattle.  I don't think that will change this week.  It'll be a down week for Brady and company but it'll still be enough to beat Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch, (who I do like for fantasy this week for what it's worth).  Too bad the replacement refs aren't still going, perhaps this one would've had a chance to go differently.  NE 23-10

New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers

79-3.  That's SF's point differential the past two weeks, ironically against Buffalo and NY Jets.  I'm sure the Giants will be quick to point out, in this instance, their from NJ.  I think this will be a great game actually.  Another toss up, but I'm going to take the offense over the defense here and go with Big Blue.  I think Eli is creative enough in spreading the ball around, even without Nicks, if he doesn't go, I just think that's how you beat the niners, which will be another close one, but don't think it'll be won or lost on special teams like last year.  30-29

Minnesota Vikings @ Washington Redskins

Another Toss up.  But I have enough confidence to take Minnesota, even on the road.  Washington can be thrown on, especially up the seam.  Look for big games out of Kyle Rudolph and Harvin.  RGIII, if he goes, will have his looks, but I just don't see the big play against this defense.  Close one though.  24-21 Vikings

Green Bay Packers @ Houston Texans
Big toss up.  Coin toss actually.  Will GB recovery from a very disappointing season so far or will Houston continue it's dominance over everyone.  I'm taking the Packers, just because I think the loss of Cushing will be bigger than people are leading it on to be, and I think Aaron Rodgers is the best QB out there right now.  Will I be surprised if Houston rolls the Pack, nope.  Just think it'll come down to some late game heroics, which Rodgers will hit whoever's lining up at WR, perhaps it'll be Jordy Nelson's welcome to 2012 party.  GB 34-31

Monday Night Game

Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers

Yep, you guessed it, another Toss Up.  But I'll roll with Peyton Manning, even on the road.  I'd like to see Ryan Matthews continue from his performance last week, in which case I think I may be wrong, but I don't trust their coach in using him properly, and I do trust Peyton Manning.  So, Broncos it is. 30-23

See you in week 7.

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