Wednesday, October 24, 2012

2012 NFL Game Predictions Week 8

Pretty good week picking last week.  I went 11-2 but really I came even closer to the first perfect week of the year.  I didn't of course, but all week I'd been flip flopping my Indianapolis/Cleveland pick, and I do a couple pick em leagues and didn't change from Indy like I did here, but I did, so that's fine, it's a loss.  And my Bills, what can I say, they had the win in the bag and yet again found a way to lose the lead.  They did the same garbage last week but Arizona found a way to lose, here, they paid for dumb play calling.  I don't know, call me what you will, but if you've got a six point lead with 3:55 on the clock, wouldn't you run the ball.  Just makes too much sense, but in any case I wouldn't  be calling screen passes five yards deep or going with a ball you hadn't made in weeks, as Ryan did attempt to Jones on the McCourty pick. Pretty disgusting as he didn't need to go there, there were other options.  Anyhow, enough of that soapbox, but in reality they are brutal on defense and have a substandard QB, so I guess I shouldn't expect much, and yet I still find myself expecting beyond their  limitations…oh well.  

The 11-2 mark brings me up to 68-36 for the year.  Almost up to the .760 barometer I'm trying to get to and beat this year.  That said, I'm really not confident about this weeks calls.  I think they'll go the way I'm going to pick em' in a minute or so, but just have weird feelings this week, where outside of 4 games, I don't have a great deal of confidence I got em' right.  So, that said, I'll start with those four games, I'll call em' my locks of the week, which will probably mean they'll go 0-4, but I'll be shocked if that happens.  And so:

Week 8.

Monday Night Football

San Francisco 49'ers @ Arizona Cardinals

SF let Seattle hang around last week, but the Seahawks can be snaky like that.  one could make the argument that the Cardinals can be the same, but I think this is a different Arizona team that started so hot.  I mean, they did lose to my Bills didn't they.  Man, it's gotten to that point again and we're only at week 8.  Anyhow, Arizona can be thrown on and I look for Vernon Davis to have a solid game this week.  I like Gore who's getting it done virtually every week in a real resurgence this year.  And what's not to like about this defense against that OL.  I do think it'll somehow wind up being closer in score than in reality, so I'll temper the pick to a SF win 19-9.

Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs

Things must be pretty bad when a healthy Matt Cassel is benched for Brady Quinn.  But that's the situation in KC.  They've got issues all over the place and make Oakland's dysfunction look like nothing at all.  I like the vertical game this week for Oakland with a nice game from QB Palmer, where he's got WR's Moore and DHB over the middle and deep, a nice TE in Myers and McFadden excels coming out of the backfield.  The Raiders defense isn't great though, so I can see a shootout if Quinn gets going to Bowe, hah, just made my self laugh…no, I can't keep a straight face with that one.  Charles might have a good game, but I like the Raiders defense scoring this week.  Yep, Brady Quinn is that bad.  Oakland 31-10

Carolina Panthers @ Chicago Bears

Cutler's hurt with bruised ribs, but he'll play and that's not a concern, as Forte can run all day against the panthers.  We might, and probably will get a good dose of Bush as well here.  Newton's in a sophomore slump of sorts, doesn't have a big target for when they're in the red zone and is simply struggling getting any ground production from his backs.  The on field disarray is also seen in how the team gave the axe to their GM this week.  I love Chicago's bloodthirsty defense this year and they're just fun to watch wrecking havoc all over the field.  They'll do that again this week.  Chicago 34-15

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Green Bay Packers

Ok, I'll try to be short here.  GB has struggled this year.  This is evident in their record, but that was early.  They have no true running game going, but that doesn't matter that much for this team.  Rodgers is back and if not this week they'll get their best weapon outside of the QB back in Jennings.  They are down CB Woodson who won't play, not sure of his year long status but either case, it could be the type of thing to hurt a team.  That is if their opponent had an NFL QB on the roster.  Gabbert's brutal and Henne showed in relief last week he's no better.  And oh yeah, no more MJD, at least not this week.  Won't be a contest. GB huge. 42-7

Atlanta Falcons @ Philadelphia Eagles

This is an interesting game.  Eagles are not a terrible team; they have talent, but getting them to perform is and has been Andy Reid's problem.  Vick is on his last legs right now and rumor's are floating if he plays poorly again, Nick Foles could be seeing his first NFL start really soon.  But in this situation, you could get a great game, even against a quality Atlanta team.  And one has to think Atlanta will lose eventually, so things could align for this week to be that week.  I sometimes like to get cute in situations like this, but I won't here.  I think Atlanta's defense is maligned a bit more than they should be.  I see it as the media's way to find faults where there are few to go around.  They're undefeated for a reason, not just because of Matt Ryan and Tony Gonzalez.  Just think of the preseason hype with Julio Jones and how he really hasn't lived up to it yet.  This team is very good. And I easily can see Vick folding under pressure here and therefore, you have my reasons for the pick.  Atlanta 21-13

Washington Redskins @ Pittsburgh Steelers

I love watching RGIII play, but they've been a bit erratic overall.  Pittsburgh is pretty much in the same boat, especially when it comes to defensive injuries and RB play.  Here's the silver lining for Steeler fans, they have an excellent QB that can go downfield.  And I heard a stat that said that Washington is giving up over 32 points a week to opponent's fantasy WR's.  That's a lot for those that don't play fantasy football.  That said, I see a huge game out of Pittsburgh's passing game, where I love TE Heath Miller and WR Antonio Brown here. Yet with a guy like RGIII and a nice RB like Morris, I won't be shocked if this game they take advantage of a less than stellar Steeler defense. But I'm going Pittsburgh here.  24-19

Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions

Tough, tough game to call. You have a near great defense in Seattle and a potential powerhouse offense in the Lions.  Potential is key though as they've been pretty anemic so far this year, and it all stems from erratic play from QB Matt Stafford.  But hey, this guy has the greatest WR in the game in Calvin Johnson, who also shares blames with the number of drops this year, but Stafford threw for 41 scores last year and 5000 yards.  Perhaps I'm living in the recent past, but I think they'll straighten things out.  Seattle should be able to run the ball against them, so good news for their RB's.  Russell Wilson is prone to making mistakes and to be honest, his receivers don't strike much fear into anyone.  As good as Seattle's defense has been, I think the way to beat this team is to throw quick on them, with the occasional deep pass in their to keep things honest.  Even with WR Burleson out for they year, Stafford has some nice guys in Young and Broyles to move up the ranks.  In what some might call an upset, I'm going to go with Detroit in a close, if not boring game, where a single big play can be the difference.  Detroit 20-17

New Orleans Saints @ Denver Broncos

Saints get their Interim Coach back this week.  Sounds kind of funny writing it, but it is what it is. They also should get TE Jimmy Graham back and he's a huge part of their offense, one that really didn't skip a beat from when he got hurt until now though.  Denver is playing good ball, and Manning is getting better as each week goes by.  I liken this game as a high scoring offense heavy game, where the home field will be the eventual deciding factor.  Denver 37-31

New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys

I really think the Giants will own the Cowboys big time this week.  Yet, I'll temper expectations to the point where I feel something strange will break for the boys late here.  I see a big lead for NY early, only to find Romo apparently win the game late.  Yet with a trifling amount of time remaining Eli will hit a deep pass, putting them into field goal range and the kick sending this into OT.  Here the Giants will win the coin toss, elect to receive and rookie CB Claiborne will get toasted on a long touchdown by Victor Cruz to suck the life out of Texas.  and that all said, if this takes place in exactly this fashion, I'm going to the casino immediately afterward.  Giants 23-17 OT

New England Patriots @ St. Louis Rams

I'm a big time Rams fan this weekend.  They've played solid defense this year and have been good at home.  Offensively they're still finding themselves, but this Bradford to Chris Givens connection has been working for them the past few weeks and NE gets toasted deep pretty much at least once per game, just look at the Seattle loss for a reference.  I just don't see the Rams pulling this upset off though.  Pretty much the way to beat the Rams is to run effectively, where you can set up the play action.  While I'm not in awe of the Pat's RB's individually, I really can't argue with their production as a group.  So I think they'll be able to run decently in this game, allowing Brady to take an occasional deep shot to Lloyd or Hernandez.  I also see a lot of short slants in this game, to Gronk, or the slot guys.  Pats should win this one, and I'll follow suit in picking them.  30-20

Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans

I haven't checked but I'm assuming the Colts are road dogs this week.  Which wouldn't technically be surprising.  After all they have a pretty weak defense and while luck's been mighty impressive, he is still a rookie.  That said, don't be surprised to see Chris Johnson somehow turn invisible again.  He shouldn't against this defense, but just have a gut feeling he'll come up small this week.  I like a higher scoring game though, but Tennessee's defense is so bad, I think the smart young QB will outscore the smart old QB here.  Indianapolis. 28-24

San Diego Chargers @ Cleveland Browns

How bad must the Chargers feel, coming off that loss and having to sit on it.  If I somehow missed the games and found out Cleveland won because Rivers imploded again, I won't be surprised.  Yet, I can't pick that way.  I have to take the more talented team, and that team is SD.  SD 27-19

Miami Dolphins @ NY Jets

Stinker of a game.  Jets have issues but have hung in games since their big pair of injuries hit a few weeks ago.  Dolphins have been a surprise for a number of reasons, QB play being one of them.  You really can't run on Miami, so I'm pretty much ruling out any production out of Shonn Greene.  I like the Jets this week because A.) I think they're better than Miami as a team and B.) Dustin Keller looked awesome last week and I think he'll thrive again this week.  Jets win. 14-10

Thursday Night Football

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Minnesota Vikings

I think both these teams have surprised us this year, Minnesota more so.  This could be a fun game to watch.  I like how TB's offense is rounding into form with some awesome play out of Vincent Jackson, and hey, Josh Freeman's getting him the ball.  RB Martin's cooled off somewhat but he's still a nice talent there.  AP or AD, whatever you want to call him, Adrian Peterson is playing great. Christian Ponder's played well and he's had a stinker like last week.  Along with AP, Ponder and K Walsh, The Vikings defense is the real story this year.  I think they'll get it done at home once more.  Minnesota 23-20

Bills, Texans, Bengals and Ravens are on bye this week.  At least I know we won't get embarrassed this week.  (Cue the Bills lose to the BYE week jokes now)

See you in Week 9.

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