Saturday, October 8, 2011

Fantasy Football League Week 5 predictions and Week 4 Recap

The league seems to be settling into a rhythm after four weeks are in the books.  We're virtually a quarter through the season and this is what we've learned so far:

Repeal Obama at 4-0 is looking like a lock at the playoffs, and deserving of the number one seed and the record he owns.

LeGarrettesBlountWraps and 7Qb's deep are looking like teams on the other end of the spectrum.

Then you have everyone else in between.  Teams that could win or lose on any given week.  For example, the third highest scoring team, Manning Vs. Food is currently in 9th place, where the only explanation is not being lucky enough to get one of the teams that are scoring in the low 100's and below each week.  Everyone else is pretty fairly balanced and jumbled in their tight.  While this situation can certainly cause some nail-biting on the majority of owners, it's great from a competition standpoint.  What will play a major role in sorting this thing out a bit more, say by the time the season's three-quarters through?  Bye weeks and injuries.

Injuries have already played a major role.  And now comes the bye week hell.

Just in week five we see the following holes:

Repeal Obama- None
6 Wide- no one major
Thug Life- Hightower
Cinderella Story- Witten
Mission:Repeat- R.Rice and Hillis
LGBW- Romo, Marshall, Boldin
FPhilly- Bryant
Blood & Thunder- Grossman, Austin
Clean Slate- Steven Jackson
Manning Vs. Food- Jabar Gaffney, Santana Moss
Iron Pigs- Felix Jones, Fred Davis, Daniel Thomas, Reggie Bush

So, one can easily see how Byes can factor into the weekly game.

Last week I picked 4 games correctly while missing out on 2.

My season record is 17-7 so far.

The 2 games I missed out on last week:

Blood & Thunder 127 Thug Life 112

Reason why B&T won: 18 pts. from Detroit Defense, 20 Points from TE Jimmy Graham and 25 from Arian Foster.

Reasons why Thug Life lost:  2 pts from Hightower, only 10 from McCoy, 3 from Holmes, 7 from Maclin and 4 from Big Ben

Cinderella Story 165 F Philly 117

Biggest blowout win of the week for the Cinderella squad, taking the honors away from Repeal Obama for the first time this year.

Reasons why CS won: 20 pts from Gore and DJax, 21 from Steve Smith, 15 from Witten and 32 from Baltimore Defense

Reasons why FP lost: 3 pts from AJ and Burress, 1 pt from Sanchez, 1 point from Gronkowski, a goose-egg for LT

Onto the Week 5 game predictions:

Repeal Obama Vs. F Philly

A good rule of gambling is to ride the hot hand.  RO is the hot hand right now and with no bye week casualties combined with F Philly's loss of Andre Johnson, this pick is easy to make.  Repeal Obama 130 F Philly 110

7 QB's Deep Vs. 6 Wide

7 QB's owner and manager has stated publicly that, "I think I just submitted the worst lineup ever seen."  It could be a motivational ploy, but after looking at his lineup I tend to agree, perhaps not the worst, but close to it.  Combine this with the fact that 6 Wide doesn't have any major bye week casualties it's another easy prediction. 6 Wide 121 7 QB's Deep. 67

Thug Life Vs. Cinderella Story

Pretty closely matched up game.  Neither team is losing all that much, Thug Life isn't losing any players of note to byes and Cinderella is only losing Witten.  I see the Witten loss as enough to pick against Cinderella this week.  Although this game could be won by Thug Life with a much higher margin if Maclin and McCoy have great games against the Bills Offense-friendly defense.  Thug Life 110  Cinderella Story 97

Mission: Repeat Vs. Iron Pigs

Iron Pigs is ravaged by the bye week.  Too much to overcome.  Mission:Repeat 109 Iron Pigs 87

Clean Slate Vs. LeGarrettesBlountwraps

I'm not enamored with the Clean Slate squad but they are a scrappy bunch for sure.  LGBW is banged up and although coming off a much needed win I can't see them winning this game, one he plays without Romo, Brandon Marshall and Anquan Boldin.  Chris Johnson and his name sake should do fine as should QB Josh Freeman.  Having to play Tarvaris Jackson at this point says it all. No, really it does.  Clean Slate should get a good game out of Fitzpatrick and A.P and that should be enough of a difference.  Clean Slate 112 LGBW 79

Blood & Thunder Vs. Manning Vs. Food

While this game could go either way I have to break this game down to get a good feel for a prediction.  Each team has some pretty good matchups but B & T has to play minus a QB in this one.  While currently MVF is showing two holes I fully expect him to plug players in there before the kickoff.  This game still should be close, but Fred Jackson going against an Eagles defense that is either last or near last in rushing defense probably will be the difference maker in this game.  Manning Vs. Food 115  Blood And Thunder 108

See you all next week, when we see which team was most hurt by the Bye weeks this week and look at next week's lineups and contests.

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