Wednesday, November 14, 2012

2012 NFL Week 11 Regular Season Predictions

Last week we saw quite a few good teams pull off some really tight wins, i.e NE, HOU, PIT)  an upset in NO, a few blow-outs in DEN, TEN, CINCI, SEA and BAL and a Tie.  Seems like one rolls around every 4 or 5 years, but this marks the first time two teams ended a game tied since the league switched to their new OT rules.  All in all, a pretty entertaining week of football.

As for predicting the games, I went 10-3-1, but I've been trying to figure out what to do with the tie, as I didn't really get the pick wrong, and then again I didn't get it right.  So, I'll count it as a loss, seeing I certainly didn't pick the Tie.  In any case, 10-4 is pretty good, which brings my season record up to 98-48.  I'm satisfied where things stand right now, but would obviously like to increase the percentage before the season finishes out.  So, that's a perfect segue as any to get right to week 11 and the picks.

Thursday Night Football

Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills

My Bills get a home primetime game.  These games have been forgettable though, going back many years.  There was the Dallas Debacle, the Flex Game Trouncing and the Season opening MNF game when McKelvin fumbled the game away on a return.  Growing up, this was the rivalry game.  Over the years though, this angle has pretty much dried up though.  Yet, it always feels good to get a win against the fish, so I 'm looking forward to some Thursday Night Football.  In the game itself, I think we'll see a lot of rushing.  The Bills have been pretty brutal on Rush D this year, and that bodes well for Reggie Bush and the Dolphins backs.  On the other side, Miami led the league in rushing allowed.  They held this for the season, yet have been getting gashed lately by the speedier backs that can cut the edge.  With Fred Jackson out, this is CJ Spiller's show and cut the edge, he can do.  I think CJ will be the difference here.  I predict he'll have an amazing game stat-wise, putting up 130+ yards on the ground, another 40 receiving and a TD as well.  Bills win 34-24

Sunday Games

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions

This game should be fun to watch.  I think it'll be high scoring, with most of the action coming through the air.  Neither team is really strong on the ground, and after a few series or so, I believe both teams will ditch the run and go to the air.  I like GB though, as while I do think Stafford will have a quality start along with his receivers, I think a high ratio of passing only can benefit the GB pass rushers, where a costly mistake or two should be the difference.  GB 30-24

Arizona Cardinals @ Atlanta Falcons

Falcons finally lost last week.  Arizona still isn't very good.  I don't think this will be a contested affair.  Perhaps the Cardinals hang in their till the third, but Ryan and company should blow things open from there on in.  Atlanta 34-17

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers

Carolina didn't fare too well against the Broncos, so they're probably relieved to see Tampa roll into town.  However, the Buc's have been pouring it on lately.  They've been getting insane production from rookie RB Martin and WR Vincent Jackson is proving himself worth every penny of the monster deal that brought him to Tampa Bay in the Offseason.  These two guys are having a great effect on Josh Freeman, who, after a slow start, has really been a steady player the past several weeks.  I like Tampa and I think Martin has another huge game.  TB 24-14

Cleveland Browns @ Dallas Cowboys

This could be a sneaky game.  Cleveland's had two weeks to prepare for a shaky Dallas squad.  But, I think Dallas is talented enough to pull this one out.  Dallas in a closer than expected game 28-23

Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins

Looks like Mike Vick won't play, so we'll get Nick Foles at QB for Philly.  I liked the kid out of Arizona and was hoping he'd fall to Buffalo mid-way through the draft.  That obviously didn't happen and he's an eagle now.  This week, it's a pretty great matchup for his first start.  Opposing team's QB's have fared pretty well against the skins and I think they'll rely heavy on RB McCoy, both on the ground and through the air.  I like RGIII, who appears to get both Moss and Garcon back at full go this week.  I think they'll be able to do enough to make this a toss up, perhaps going to OT.  I like the Eagles though.  27-24

New York Jets @ St. Louis Rams

Jets should win this game, but I don't think they will.  They've been playing terrible lately, the locker room chatter is firing up and they're getting beat around lately.  St. Louis has fare really well under their new coach, who's done a great job with the defense.  But Stephen Jackson and Sam Bradford have looked really good lately as well.  Bradford's having a nice season so far.  I think the Rams Defense will shut Sanchez and company down and Bradford will find the time to throw a TD or two here.  STL 23-13

Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs

Good showing for the Chiefs this past monday.  But you kind of have to put things in perspective though.  They played against Leftwich for most the game, after Big Ben hurt his shoulder, which is far easier to play against then playing against their starter.  Cincinnati has been up and down all year, but Dalton to AJ Green has been hot all season long.  I look for that connection to continue this week.  Pretty easy win for the Bengals.  42-14

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans

I see no hope for Jacksonville here.  Their defense will not stop the Texans offense in any manner, nor will their offense be able to do anything against the Houston defense.  Houston huge 38-6

New Orleans Saints @ Oakland Raiders

Two defenses that have been pretty bad this year square off.  Each team has had their troubles running the ball as well.  This could be a fun game to watch, as both QB's have been slinging it this year.  But for outcomes, I can't take Oakland, not against Brees and his weapons.  31-23

San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos

SD has made too many major mistakes this year and Denver's defense should be more than capable to stir up a turnover or two in this game.  On the other side, I don't think it matters how good the other team's defense is, Peyton Manning is getting the job done in a big way.  Love the Broncos this week.  33-20

Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots

I love how Andrew Luck has played this year.  It's a feel good story seeing this team that no one predicted to do anything at all, to currently sit in a playoff spot.  Their rallying behind their QB and playing for their coach, doing their part to show their support of him in his trying time.  However, I think Buffalo might have caught NE napping a bit last week, and while they still won the game, they had every reason why they should've lost.  I think that game will serve as a reality check and Tom Brady will pick apart Indy's defense here.  NE 37-17

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers

I probably would've had a tough time picking this game if Big Ben didn't get hurt.  While he's not out officially yet, the word is that Byron Leftwich will get the start, and that's terrible news for Steeler fans and great news for the Ravens. Baltimore wins 24-13

Monday Night Football

Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49'ers

Interesting game to look at.  Both teams have top 5 defenses.  Both Teams have excellent kickers.  Both are doing great in their ground attack.  The difference in my opinion is Vernon Davis for the niners and Brandon Marshall for the Bears.  However, both starting QB's may be out this week.  If this does indeed happen, which the odds look good for this to play out, second year QB Colin Kaepernick will take SF's reigns while capable journeyman Jason Campbell will go for the Bears.  I think these QB's will limit the production potential somewhat and create a situation where the best defense wins.  I should take Chicago then, but something about Kaepernick tells me he'll do some things scrambling that the Bears won't be in position to prepare themselves adequately for.  I'll take SF in a close on 17-14

Have a great week of football.  See you in week 12

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