Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Fantasy Football League Week 13

Well I think I'm just going to forget about last weeks picks.  I went 2-4 which is easily my worst week of picking for the year.  My yearly record is still pretty good at 43-18-2 but I was hoping to hit 50 wins, which was a secret goal of mine this year.  Well, looks like I'll have to extend the tally into the playoffs now if I even have a chance at that mark.

Anyhow, I'm not going to recap specifically the 4 losses.  I will however make mention that I was shocked at the 165 Clean Slate dropped on Cinderella Story.  I saw the score before the Patriot game and thought the mockery would continue, where Cinderella laces up old Donavan McNabb with starting QB's sitting on the waiver wire.  But despite the amazing game NE-PHI was for Cinderella, the glass slipper is lost and will not be found again this year.  Clean Slate is alive in the playoff picture, which is:

1.  Blood and Thunder secured a first found playoff bye with his win over DreamKiller.  He keeps the #1 seed with a win or a Repeal Obama loss.  If he loses and RO wins then it'll come down to the tiebreaker, which RO will need to make up the 37 points separating the two teams.

2.  Repeal Obama's win makes him, in all likelihood, a lock for a first round bye.  I already mentioned how he can secure the #1 seed above, but he can lose the bye as well.  If he happens to lose and Mission:Repeat wins and wins by more than 42 points than RO scores he'll lock up the bye.  While not likely we've seen many routs this year, so who knows.

3.  Mission:Repeat keeps the #3 seed and has the previously mentioned shot at a bye with a win.  If he loses then playoff positioning depends on a number of things.  First, if 6Wide wins he'll get #3 seed and then M:R would either get #4 or #5 seed, depending on Thug Life.  If Thug wins then it'll come down to pts scored, which at present M:R only has a 1pt lead over Thug.

4.  6Wide  Locks up the #4 seed with a win and as mentioned can still move back into the #3 seed.  If 6 Wide Loses he can move down depending on Thug Life winning.  Actually he can slide all the way to the #6 seed if he loses and both Thug Life and Clean Slate win.

5.  Thug Life.  He's sitting here at the #5 seed and can finish at a number of seed positions.  As mentioned he can move into the #3 or #4 seeds but he can also be eliminated as well. If thug life loses to Manning Vs. Food he then needs a Clean Slate loss or he's eliminated.

6. Clean Slate.  He's in if he wins.  If he loses he needs some help from Thug Life.  The only way he makes it in with a loss is if Thug beat MVF, in which case would clinch Clean Slate in the #6 Seed.

Manning Vs. Food will make the playoffs with a win against Thug Life.  It is the old Win and In scenario and playoff game #2.  Last week was his first playoff match that he happened to beat the F Philly squad, sending them packing.  He cannot make the playoffs with a loss, but a win, coupled with a Clean Slate loss would give him the #5 seed and then allowing #6 to be filled by Thug Life, who would literally back into the playoffs if this scenario occurs, which I think it will.

Cinderella Story, Dream Killer, Iron Pigs and 7 QB's deep don't even have the spoiler play to look forward to, as Cinderella plays DK and IP plays 7QB's in what amounts to playing for pride and pride alone.

F Philly though, while out of the playoff mix can affect the playoffs with a win over Mission:Repeat, so his game this week at least offers him a but of that spoiler play.

As for this weeks games themselves:

Cinderella Story Vs. Dream Killer

Dream killer is on fumes and I think McNabb will outscore some of his players this week.  Now that Vick is officially eliminated he'll have to go with Palko, which isn't very pretty against Chicago, that is, if Orton doesn't get the nod.  Cinderella 95 DK 50

Iron Pigs Vs. 7 QB's Deep

Not much to say about his one.  It looks like the Pigs have headed to the pen as he started Jay Cutler last week despite Caleb Hanie, the new starter being on the WW.  So I'll pick the 7's here.  7QB's Deep 111- Iron Pigs 94

F Philly @ Mission:Repeat

McGahee and Rice may be the keys to this game for M:R.  If these guys come up small I think F Philly takes the pleasure in spoiling M:R's aspirations of a high seeding.  But I think both those backs will do fine and see this one as.  M:R 106 F Philly 103

Repeal Obama Vs. Clean Slate

The real Cinderella Story this year has been Clean Slate, just trying to get over the AP loss.  That one injury really hurt his team as bad as any could hurt a team.  He was there, in position to beat B & T when the injury took place two weeks ago.  So now he's just clinging onto life support, heading into a game where his opponent has some of the types of match-ups you hope to have in the playoffs.  Victor Cruz has been going nuts, and I can't see how he doesn't do the same this week, but if AP doesn't go, well I can't see a possibility he scores more points than RO's top 6, not to mention he has Jordy Nelson and Laurent Robinson in his flex spots.  RO 128 Clean Slate 100

6Wide Vs. Blood & Thunder

A really good match up on paper.  Some high quality in-game matches for both teams.  This one will surely come down to the MNF game where I see B & T needing about 24 points from MJD in that one, not impossible but to be realistic, it's a pretty lofty score to need here.  6Wide 132 B& T 129

Thug Life Vs. Manning Vs. Food

This is the main event.  As big a week 13 game as you can get.  For this reason I'd like to go through each of these teams rosters:


Thug life goes with Big Ben @home for Cincinnati & VY @ Seattle  Potential points 30

MVF goes with ELI @ home for GB and Drew Brees @ home for Detroit. Potential Points 40


Thug life goes with Lloyd vs. SF, Boldin vs. Cleveland and Holmes Vs. Washington.  Potential Points 30

MVF goes with Simpson vs. Pitt, Garcon Vs. NE and Meachem Vs. Detroit.  Potential Points 15


Thug Life goes with a very questionable LeSean McCoy Vs. a very difficult Seattle run defense and Michael Turner vs. a pretty solid Texans defense.  Potential Points 36

MVF goes with Marshawn Lynch vs. a Philly run defense that gives up RB points to RB1's and Johnny White vs. Titans.  Possible Points 17

At TE:

Thug Life goes with Vernon Davis vs. STL  Possible Points 13

MVF goes with Tony Gonzalez vs. Houston Possible Points 13


Thug Life goes with W/T Denarius Moore vs. Miami, who is not listed here as questionable but I have heard from good sources that his being inactive is a possibility as of 3 hours ago.  W/R Cedric Benson vs Pitt.  Potential Points 16

MVF goes with W/T Scott Chandler vs. Tennessee and W/R Greg Jennings Vs. NYG's suspect secondary in what should be a high scoring game.  Potential Points 26

AT K and DEF:

Thug Life goes with Gould vs. KC and Giants Defense Vs. GB  Possible Total Points 4

MVF goes with Rackers vs. Atlanta and Bears Defense Vs. KC  Possible Points 20.

According to this outlook, which I'm sure will change by Sunday:

Thug Life 129

MVF 131

A couple points of advice if either team chooses to listen.  Thug Life, if I were you I'd pay the closest of attention on McCoy's status leading up to tomorrow nights game.  If he can't go, you need to have a capable backup ready to fill in. Also keep an eye on Moore, as I mentioned there are reports out there that his status is in jeopardy for Sunday.  I would probably play Hasselback vs. Buffalo if he's healthy, but then again I'm a jaded Bills fan who thinks our secondary is the worst on the planet.  I would also go get a different defense, it'll be -4 if you stick with it, which, if my outline goes right, would cost you the game.

MVF.  You can't roll with Simpson, Chandler, White, Meachem and Garcon.  I know looking at your recent transactions you don't intend to, but yeah, white can't be used, I do like the Helu and Jones pick ups as they are much better than any of your other options.  I'd scour the waiver wire for other options as well, there has to be better options out there.  I love Chandler, but he's risky, either boom or bust, but that said I might use him just the same, been missing a TE in our offense for so long, he was one of the highlights this year. Take the recommendations with a grain of salt, if you use them and you lose, just ask RO, I will not be responsible or take the blame-lol

Anyhow, I find this match-up the most intriguing, not just because it's a win and in type of game, but the fact the MVF was on fire early, loses his best 2 players and is still in this thing, pretty impressive.  Thug Life has had a great team on paper all year but as many of us know from our own rosters, variables and underperformance just sucks.

So, I think the Playoffs will shake out like this:

1. Blood & Thunder
2. Repeal Obama

3. Mission: Repeat vs. 6. Thug Life
4. 6-Wide Vs. 5. Manning Vs. Food

Enjoy the week of football

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